US Labor Market Analysis: September 2025 Data & Federal Shutdown Impact

Executive Summary

This report provides a detailed analysis of the US labor market data for September 2025, with a particular focus on the effects of the federal government shutdown on data collection and release. The report covers key aspects such as unemployment rates, employment across various sectors, average hourly earnings, and changes to data collection methodology.

Key Highlights

• Unemployment Rate: Remained steady at 4.4%, little changed from the previous month but higher than the previous year.
• Employment: The private sector saw slight growth, with notable increases in healthcare, food services, and social assistance sectors. Conversely, the transportation and warehousing and federal government sectors experienced employment declines.
• Federal Shutdown: Delayed the release of data and posed challenges to data collection from businesses.
• Average Hourly Earnings: Increased by 0.2% to $36.67, a year-over-year increase of 3.8%.

Detailed Analysis of September 2025 Data

Unemployment Rates

The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 4.4%, representing 7.6 million unemployed persons. This rate is higher than the 4.1% recorded in the previous year. An increase in unemployment rates was observed among adult women and Asians, while the rate saw little change among other groups.

Employment Across Sectors

Some sectors experienced notable employment growth, including:

• Healthcare: Addition of 43,000 jobs.
• Food Services: Continued growth with the addition of 37,000 jobs.
• Social Assistance: Increase of 14,000 jobs.

In contrast, some sectors experienced employment declines, including:

• Transportation and Warehousing: Decline of 25,000 jobs.
• Federal Government: Continued decline with a loss of an additional 3,000 jobs.

Impact of the Federal Shutdown

The federal government shutdown delayed the release of the September 2025 data and caused challenges in collecting data from businesses. Despite this, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was able to collect 80.2% of the required data from businesses.

Revisions to Previous Data

The employment data for July was revised from an increase of 79,000 jobs to an increase of 72,000 jobs. The data for August was also revised from an increase of 22,000 jobs to a decrease of 4,000 jobs. Overall, the data for July and August were revised down by 33,000 jobs.

Future Outlook

The Employment Situation report for November is scheduled for release on December 16, 2025. Changes are also being made to the birth-death model used in the establishment survey, and will be implemented starting with the January 2026 data.

Disclaimer: Financial markets involve risks, and investments require caution. This report does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial circumstances, or specific needs of any user. Users should assess whether any opinions, views, or conclusions contained in this report are appropriate to their particular circumstances. Investment based on this report is the sole responsibility of the user.