Markets are carefully monitoring June US labor numbers today

US job numbers on the lookout

For currency traders, Thursday was a day of waiting: the dollar index is currently stalling, little changed after a choppy previous session, as all eyes are turning to Friday's June jobs report for a clearer read on the labor market and what it means for Fed policy. The June NFP is currently expected to show up at 110k, which is lower than the previous 172k. But what we are keen to see is how big an adjustment the previous reading will get. If it is strongly to the downside, then we may see USD weakening. Wednesday's private sector hiring miss had already signaled some softening, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh added to the dovish tilt, noting that inflation expectations have cooled over the past month, suggesting the Fed can afford to hold off on rate hikes for now, even as he reiterated the central bank's resolve to bring inflation to heel. Markets still see better than 60% odds of a September hike, but the incoming data will be key. The dollar has also held its ground despite a steady stream of oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran talks, both of which have pushed crude prices down and eased some of the inflationary pressure that had been supporting the greenback.

USDCHF technical outlook

After a recent strong push higher, USDCHF is now seen moving sideways, as it awaits for the next catalyst that could drive the pair either higher, or lower. The rate is currently trading below a key area of resistance, at 0.8124, marked near the highest points of November 2025 and June 2026. If that barrier gets cleared, the next potential target could be seen near the 0.8171 zone, marked by the highest point of August 2025. If the buying doesn’t stop there, the next possible resistance target might be around 0.8215, which is the highest point of June 2025.

To shift our attention lower in the near term, we would prefer to wait for a drop below the 0.8040 zone first, which marks the highest points of January and March of this year. If that happens, this might clear the path towards the 0.8013 obstacle, or even the 0.7925 level, marked by the inside swing high of 29(th) April.

(USDCHF oil daily chart. Source: tradingview.com)

Europe seen slightly higher on Thursday morning

Germany's blue-chip index stretched its winning run to three days on Thursday, with the DAX 40 nudging up toward 25,100, a level not seen in over a week, as investors continued to pivot away from tech and chip stocks, spooked by the lingering fog around AI's trajectory. Infineon led the retreat, falling 2.1%, while Hochtief and Siemens Energy also gave up around 2% each. But it was Bayer that stole the spotlight, jumping more than 4% after unveiling plans to spin off its US glyphosate operations into a dedicated subsidiary called Ruveon, a restructuring that earned the company a "Buy" rating from Deutsche Bank. Adding to the upbeat mood, Chancellor Friedrich Merz's coalition rolled out a sweeping reform package, featuring €10 billion in tax cuts for lower earners, pension adjustments, and fresh measures to tackle the housing crunch. The DAX is on a roll, even as the tech sector takes a back seat.

DAX technical outlook

Looking at the near-term picture of DAX on our daily chart, we can see that from the beginning of April it is trading well above a short-term upside support line, drawn from the low of 13th April. At the same time, the index seems to be approaching a key resistance area, at 25173, marked by the high of June. If that area gets violated, this may attract more buyers, as a very short-term higher high could be established. If that move happens, we will then aim for the medium-term downside resistance line, taken from the current highest point of 2026. The trendline might provide a temporary hold-up, but its break could open the door for a potential move to the current all-time high, at 25507, or even higher.

Alternatively, for us to start examining slightly lower areas, we would prefer to wait for a break below the previously discussed upside line. This way, the bulls might get spooked from the field temporarily, potentially clearing the way to some lower hurdle. That’s when we will aim for the 24000 zone, or even the 23920 level, marked near the lowest point of May.

(DAX oil daily chart. Source: tradingview.com)