OPEC Predicts Balanced Oil Market in 2026, Responds to Media Reports

Wednesday Nov 19 2025 00:00

Duration

2 min

  1. 1. OPEC Denies 2026 Oil Surplus Forecast, Criticizes Media

  2. 1.1 Supply and Demand Growth Projections

  3. 1.2 Potential Continued Production Increases

OPEC Denies 2026 Oil Surplus Forecast, Criticizes Media

The Secretary General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Haitham Al Ghais, stated that OPEC does not anticipate an oil supply surplus by 2026 and strongly criticized media reports that he described as misleading and misinterpreting data from OPEC's monthly oil market report. Al Ghais stated, "There has been misrepresentation in some media outlets of our monthly market report, particularly concerning the creation of a narrative around a potential surplus in the market next year based on some figures in our report." He added that OPEC expects the oil market to be balanced next year, which is a revision of previous forecasts that indicated a supply shortage.

Supply and Demand Growth Projections

OPEC's projections indicate that oil production growth from non-OPEC countries will be faster than expected, adding 1.3 million barrels per day to the market by 2026. Conversely, the organization expects oil demand to grow at a rate of 1.6 million barrels per day, bringing total demand to 106.2 million barrels per day. Al Ghais described OPEC's monthly oil market report as "very basic" and "not complicated," implying that the information contained within it is clear and straightforward, and that the problem lies in media interpretation.

Potential Continued Production Increases

Despite OPEC's forecast of a balanced oil market in 2026, analysts expect the organization to continue increasing its production after a brief pause at the beginning of next year, based on agreements reached at the recent meeting. A survey conducted by an institution this month involving 25 traders and analysts showed that most expect OPEC to continue increasing production monthly, while only a few predicted a longer pause or even a reversal of current production policies. Greg Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group consulting firm in New York, believes that "OPEC may reverse its policy and pledge to cut production only in the event of a clear collapse in demand and a drop in oil prices below $50 a barrel, and a clear recognition by OPEC leaders of the need to shift policy focus back to market management." Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy AS and former employee of the OPEC Secretariat, believes that "OPEC+ will not cut production in 2026, OPEC+ has made its path forward clear, which is to regain market share."

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Written by:

Emma Rose

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