Oil Price Today Rebounds Toward $100 as New Tanker Attacks Revive Supply Fears

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude jumped 3.9% to $98.29 a barrel, while WTI rose 2.7% to $90.52.
• Reports of new tanker attacks and mine incidents near the Strait of Hormuz revived concerns about Middle East oil shipments.
• Oil recovered after falling more than 8% in the previous session on hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could restore disrupted supply.
• Analysts warn that renewed military escalation could push Brent back toward $110 to $125.

The oil price today rebounded sharply toward $100 a barrel as new attacks on tankers reminded traders that progress in US-Iran negotiations has not yet translated into safer shipping or dependable energy supplies.

Brent crude futures climbed $3.67, or 3.9%, to settle at $98.29 a barrel on Thursday. US West Texas Intermediate rose $2.40, or 2.7%, to $90.52.

The recovery followed a dramatic sell-off on Wednesday, when both benchmarks lost more than 8% and reached their lowest closing levels since August 31. Traders had initially increased bets that diplomatic negotiations could lead to a ceasefire, reopen important shipping routes and restore more Iranian and Gulf oil to the global market.

Tanker Attacks Put the Strait of Hormuz Back in Focus

The latest rally was driven primarily by renewed threats to commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in separate incidents after attempting to use unauthorized routes through the waterway. Iranian military officials separately reported additional vessels striking naval mines.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency also reported that a tanker was struck by two projectiles approximately 50 nautical miles north of Qatar. The vessel’s identity and the party responsible for the attack were not immediately confirmed.

At least five vessels have reported incidents since Sunday, according to maritime security data cited by Reuters. Attacks remain close to the record pace recorded in October, when 35 ships were reportedly hit.

These incidents highlight the difference between diplomatic discussions and an actual normalization of energy flows. Even if the United States and Iran reach an initial political agreement, insurers, shipping companies and tanker operators may remain cautious until safe passage can be guaranteed.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters for Oil Prices

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea and is one of the world’s most important energy transport routes. Under normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the narrow waterway.

Exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar depend heavily on the route. Any prolonged disruption can reduce available crude and liquefied natural gas supplies while raising tanker charter rates, insurance costs and delivery times.

Saudi Arabia also issued warnings about potential danger around Yanbu, its main Red Sea export hub. The alerts followed continued attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, adding another source of risk outside the Strait of Hormuz.

The Houthis said they targeted King Fahd airport in Dammam, although Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the claim. The combination of threats to both Gulf and Red Sea infrastructure makes it harder for producers to reroute exports safely.

Iran Peace Hopes Triggered the Previous Oil Price Crash

Oil prices fell sharply earlier in the week as traders responded to signs that Qatar-mediated negotiations could reduce hostilities.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi discussed diplomatic efforts with officials from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Mediators have been exploring proposals involving Iranian assets, oil sanctions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Iran’s negotiating position appears to remain far from terms the United States is likely to accept. Iran has demanded sanctions relief and guarantees for oil exports, while refusing to make concessions on several security and nuclear issues.

The lack of a confirmed agreement caused the market to reconsider whether Wednesday’s decline had gone too far.

Eurasia Group raised its estimated probability of a prolonged standoff to 30% from 15% and reduced the probability of a diplomatic deal to 10% from 20%. The consultancy said renewed escalation could push Brent crude into a range of $110 to $125 a barrel.

US Inventories Provide Additional Support

US petroleum inventories also offered some support to the oil market.

Commercial crude inventories declined by approximately 865,000 barrels during the week ending October 30. Gasoline inventories fell by 222,000 barrels, while distillate stocks dropped by 3.565 million barrels.

The distillate draw was substantially larger than expected, indicating tighter supplies of diesel and heating fuel. That could become increasingly important as the Northern Hemisphere approaches the winter demand season.

The inventory data were not the main driver of Thursday’s rally, but they reinforced the view that the petroleum market may have less spare product supply available to absorb a major Middle East disruption.

Russian Refinery Attacks Add Another Supply Risk

The market is also monitoring renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Russia’s Ryazan refinery, one of the country’s largest processing facilities, appeared to have been targeted during a drone attack on industrial sites southeast of Moscow. If confirmed, it would be the second Russian refinery hit during the week following an attack on the Yaroslavl facility.

Repeated refinery disruptions could restrict Russia’s ability to supply diesel and other refined products, placing additional pressure on markets already affected by Middle East shipping risks.

Can Brent Crude Break Above $100 Again?

Brent is now approaching the psychologically important $100 level. A sustained move above that threshold will likely depend on whether attacks on tankers continue and whether diplomatic negotiations produce a verifiable agreement.

The near-term scenarios include:

• Further escalation: Additional tanker attacks, mine incidents or military strikes could push Brent above $100 and reopen the $110 to $125 risk range.
• Continued standoff: Brent may remain volatile between approximately $95 and $105 while traders wait for clearer diplomatic or shipping developments.
• Credible peace agreement: A ceasefire combined with the reopening of Hormuz could bring prices back toward the recent lows near $90.
• Supply normalization: Restored Gulf exports and lower shipping costs could remove part of the geopolitical risk premium.

The latest rebound shows that the oil market is not prepared to assume that Middle East supply conditions will quickly return to normal. Until diplomatic progress results in safer tanker traffic and reliable deliveries, the oil price is likely to retain a substantial geopolitical premium.

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