Nvidia Breaks Its Earnings-Day Curse With 8.7% Surge and $442 Billion Market-Cap Gain

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia shares surged 8.7%, adding approximately $442 billion in market value in the second-largest one-day market-cap increase on record.
• Strong quarterly results and a bullish revenue outlook eased concerns about slowing AI demand, caught bearish options traders off guard and lifted the broader technology sector.
• Nvidia expects revenue to grow approximately 70% in fiscal 2028, but management described the forecast as supply-constrained, suggesting sales could be higher if more components were available.

Nvidia delivered one of the most dramatic post-earnings rallies in its history on Thursday, breaking a pattern of share-price declines following recent quarterly reports and restoring confidence in the artificial intelligence trade.

Nvidia stock jumped 8.7% to close at $227.98, its largest daily gain since April 2025. The rally added approximately $441.5 billion to the chipmaker’s market capitalization, lifting its total value to around $5.49 trillion.

The increase was Nvidia’s largest one-day market-cap gain and the second biggest recorded by any company. It narrowly trailed the approximately $450 billion added by Microsoft in a single session in July.

Nvidia Earnings Crush Wall Street Expectations

The rally followed Nvidia’s fiscal second-quarter results, which exceeded analysts’ forecasts across several important measures.

Revenue reached $96.22 billion in the quarter ended July 26, increasing 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from a year earlier. Data-center revenue climbed 117% year over year to $89 billion, accounting for more than 92% of total sales.

GAAP net income more than doubled to $59.69 billion, while adjusted earnings reached $2.22 per share. Analysts had expected revenue of approximately $92.2 billion and adjusted earnings of around $2.10 per share.

Nvidia forecast third-quarter revenue of $108 billion, plus or minus 2%, compared with the market consensus of approximately $104.2 billion. The company’s forecast does not assume any data-center computing revenue from China.

The results showed that demand for Nvidia’s AI accelerators remains strong despite concerns about whether technology companies will continue spending aggressively on data centers. Nvidia also confirmed that its next-generation Vera Rubin platform has entered full production.

Nvidia’s 70% Growth Forecast Revives the AI Trade

The most important announcement may have been Nvidia’s unusually early forecast for its next financial year.

Management expects revenue to increase approximately 70% in fiscal 2028, substantially exceeding the roughly 44% growth Wall Street had projected before the report. Nvidia typically does not provide revenue guidance a full year in advance.

Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said customer forecasts indicated that Nvidia’s business could potentially double next year. However, shortages of memory chips and other components are limiting the company’s ability to satisfy all available demand.

Nvidia therefore described the 70% forecast as a “supply-constrained outlook.” Without those production limitations, the pace of revenue growth could be significantly higher.

Some Wall Street analysts consequently view the forecast as conservative. Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis said the 70% growth rate could represent a floor, with unconstrained demand running closer to 100%. The firm sees a potential path for Nvidia’s annual revenue to reach $1 trillion in fiscal 2029.

The outlook directly addressed one of the market’s biggest concerns: whether AI infrastructure spending is approaching its peak. Nvidia instead presented evidence that demand is expanding beyond established hyperscale cloud providers to AI laboratories, sovereign customers, enterprises and specialist cloud companies.

Nvidia Breaks Its Post-Earnings Curse

Nvidia’s results frequently exceed market expectations, but that record has created an unusually high standard for the company.

Its shares had declined following six of the previous eight earnings reports. Investors had become so accustomed to Nvidia beating forecasts that even strong results sometimes failed to satisfy expectations.

Options activity ahead of this quarter’s announcement indicated that many traders were again positioned for the stock to fall. Initial after-hours trading appeared to support that view, with the shares briefly declining as investors focused on pressure from rising memory costs and lower expected gross margins.

Sentiment reversed during the earnings call when Nvidia disclosed its 70% fiscal 2028 growth forecast and emphasized that supply, rather than demand, was restricting its expansion.

The subsequent 8.7% rally caught bearish traders off guard and decisively ended the recent post-earnings pattern. Nvidia’s advance was also its strongest daily percentage gain in more than a year.

Nvidia Rally Lifts the Technology Sector

Nvidia’s performance provided a major boost to US equities, although gains remained heavily concentrated in technology stocks.

The S&P 500 advanced 0.7%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately 106 points, or 0.2%.

The S&P 500 information technology sector climbed 3.4%, making it the only one of the index’s 11 sectors to finish the session in positive territory. The other ten sectors declined, highlighting the degree to which technology companies drove the broader market higher.

Software stocks also contributed to the rally. Salesforce surged approximately 23% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, raising its full-year outlook and announcing a deeper partnership with Anthropic.

CrowdStrike gained 20.5% after quarterly revenue increased 26% to $1.47 billion and annual recurring revenue reached $5.84 billion. The cybersecurity company also raised its outlook as AI adoption and AI-related security risks generated additional demand.

Microsoft and several other large technology companies advanced, while Amazon, Meta Platforms and Alphabet finished lower. The mixed performance showed that Nvidia’s results strengthened confidence in AI infrastructure and enterprise software without producing a universal rally across mega-cap technology stocks.

Nvidia’s Expanding Financial Role Draws Attention

Nvidia is increasingly supporting the AI ecosystem through investments, supply commitments and infrastructure-financing partnerships, extending its role beyond that of a semiconductor supplier.

At the end of the quarter, Nvidia held $42.78 billion in marketable equity securities and $51.16 billion in non-marketable securities, giving it almost $94 billion of equity-related holdings. Long-term debt increased to approximately $32.37 billion from $7.47 billion at the end of January.

The company also announced partnerships with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to create independent computing-finance platforms. These initiatives aim to mobilize more than $500 billion in third-party capital for AI infrastructure over time, although Nvidia said they remain subject to definitive agreements.

The arrangement should not be interpreted as a confirmed $500 billion direct guarantee from Nvidia. Nevertheless, the company’s growing investments and financing commitments have increased scrutiny of how much financial exposure it is assuming to accelerate purchases of its own technology.

The figures do not demonstrate that AI demand is artificial. Nvidia’s sales growth and customer orders indicate that demand is currently substantial. However, its expanding role in funding suppliers, AI developers and data-center projects creates additional risks if utilization rates or customer finances deteriorate.

Markets Turn to Jackson Hole After the Nvidia Rally

With Nvidia’s earnings delivered, investors are shifting their attention to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The ten-year US Treasury yield remained near 4.67% on Thursday as markets assessed persistent inflation, rising government borrowing and heavy debt issuance linked to AI infrastructure investment.

Warsh’s comments could determine whether the technology-led rally receives further support from lower rate expectations or encounters renewed pressure from rising bond yields. For now, Nvidia’s report has reassured investors that demand for AI computing remains exceptionally strong—even if the company cannot yet produce enough chips to capture all of it.