Market Insights: Bitcoin & Ethereum Analysis and Updates for November 28th

Market Overview and Trend Analysis (November 28th)

On November 27th, global financial markets experienced notable divergences. While U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving, oil prices saw a rebound fueled by OPEC+'s decision to maintain its pause on production increases. However, developments regarding Russia-Ukraine negotiations led to sudden price volatility. In contrast, gold prices surged, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, briefly exceeding $4,190.

Analysts at Wells Fargo Investment Institute suggest that a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, a weaker dollar, and changes in investment logic for trending sectors like AI, could create favorable conditions for alternative assets such as gold. Looking ahead, despite concerns about an economic slowdown, expectations of policy shifts provide potential opportunities for risk assets, as global investors closely monitor the Federal Reserve's next moves and the resulting potential market reshaping.

Bitcoin Analysis:

Bitcoin's price has risen to nearly $92,000 after a period of volatility. Multiple analysts indicate that this rise was primarily driven by short covering rather than strong support from spot buying. For example, KillaXBT began establishing short positions at $91,400 and plans to add more at $93,100, with a stop loss set at $95,000. He warns that if the weekly closing price fails to surpass $108,000 in the next four weeks, a bear market will be confirmed, with a potential price target of $60,000.

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's market structure remains fragile, with the short-term holder cost basis (around $104,600) acting as a key resistance level. Dense supply areas exist between $93,000 and $96,000 and between $100,000 and $108,000. If liquidity fails to improve, Bitcoin's price may further decline to the 'realized market average' of around $81,000. Key support must remain firm above the $84,000 cost cluster, which involves approximately 400,000 BTC.

Ethereum Analysis:

Despite Ethereum's price rebounding 15% from a low of $2,623 and briefly reaching $3,000, on-chain and derivatives data suggest that bullish sentiment among large investors has not fully recovered, making it more difficult for the price to break through the $4,000 barrier. The total value locked (TVL) of the Ethereum network has decreased from nearly $100 billion to $72.3 billion, and network fees have decreased by 13% over the past week. The long/short ratio of top traders on OKX also shows a bias toward short positions.

Upbit Hack:

The hacking incident at Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit on November 27th was among the recent notable events. This attack resulted in the theft of approximately 54 billion Korean won (about US$36.81 million) worth of Solana network-related assets, including SOL, JUP, PYTH, RENDER, and several other tokens. Korean authorities strongly suspect that the North Korean Lazarus Group is responsible for this incident, which is also allegedly linked to the Ethereum theft from Upbit six years ago.