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Saturday Nov 29 2025 07:00
2 min
Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, has cautioned that the Monad blockchain could experience a dramatic decline, potentially dropping by as much as 99%. Hayes views Monad as another venture capital-driven experiment that lacks genuine adoption.
He described the project as “another high FDV, low-float VC coin,” emphasizing that its token structure poses risks to retail traders. Fully Diluted Value (FDV) represents the market value of a crypto project if all its tokens were already in circulation.
According to Hayes, projects with a substantial disparity between FDV and circulating supply often witness early price surges, followed by sharp sell-offs once insider tokens are unlocked. He further added that most new layer-1 networks ultimately fail, with only a select few likely to maintain long-term relevance.
Hayes identified Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Zcash (ZEC) as the small group of protocols he anticipates will endure through the next cycle.
Despite his warning about Monad, Hayes remains optimistic about the cryptocurrency market as a whole, largely driven by renewed monetary expansion. He argues that governments, particularly the United States, are gearing up for another round of liquidity injections ahead of political campaigns and economic slowdowns. He also dismissed the widely held four-year Bitcoin cycle, stating that past market booms were fueled not by halvings but by global credit expansion led by the US and China.
Looking forward, Hayes predicts that privacy technologies will dominate the next crypto narrative, with zero-knowledge systems and privacy coins experiencing renewed interest. He also suggested that institutional adoption is likely to center around Ethereum, especially through stablecoins and tokenized finance.
Risk Warning: This article represents only the author’s views and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation to trade, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform. When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leveraged products can result in capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider your investment objectives and level of experience. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients.
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