XRP Price Forecast: Bearish Chart Pattern Signals Potential 20% Decline

Key Takeaways

• XRP is testing critical support around $1.04–$1.05, with a confirmed breakdown from a descending triangle potentially sending the token toward $0.84–$0.85, representing a decline of roughly 20%.
• The cryptocurrency remains below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 40 suggests bearish momentum without entering oversold territory.
• Although spot XRP ETFs attracted approximately $13 million in net inflows in July, demand has slowed significantly compared with the strong inflows seen shortly after the products launched.
• A sustained move above $1.10–$1.11 would ease near-term downside pressure, while a daily close above $1.14–$1.15 could invalidate the current bearish setup.

Descending Triangle Puts XRP at Risk of a Deeper Pullback

XRP traded around $1.06 on Tuesday as the token continued to hover just above an important support zone between $1.04 and $1.05. Recent price action has formed a descending triangle, a technical pattern that typically reflects increasing selling pressure as lower highs develop while buyers repeatedly defend the same support level.

The pattern would be confirmed if XRP closes decisively below $1.04, particularly if accompanied by stronger trading volume. In that scenario, the cryptocurrency could first retest the psychological $1.00 level before extending losses toward $0.93–$0.95. Based on the triangle's measured move, the broader downside target sits around $0.84–$0.85, implying a potential decline of about 20% from current levels.

Technical Indicators Continue to Favor Sellers

Technical signals continue to point to a cautious outlook for XRP.

The token remains below all of its major daily exponential moving averages, including the 20-day EMA near $1.10, the 50-day EMA around $1.14, the 100-day EMA near $1.22, and the 200-day EMA around $1.42. This alignment suggests that bearish pressure remains intact across both short- and long-term timeframes.

Meanwhile, XRP's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 40, indicating weak momentum. While the indicator has not yet reached oversold levels, it also shows limited signs of bullish strength returning to the market.

ETF Inflows Remain Positive but Have Lost Momentum

Institutional demand continues to provide some support for XRP, although it has weakened considerably.

According to SoSoValue, spot XRP ETFs recorded approximately $13.03 million in net inflows during July, lifting total assets under management to around $1 billion.

Despite remaining positive, ETF demand is substantially below the levels seen following the launch of these products. Monthly inflows reached nearly $660 million in November 2025 and about $500 million in December 2025, before slowing sharply throughout 2026.

The moderation in ETF buying suggests institutional investors are still increasing exposure to XRP, but at a pace that has not been sufficient to offset broader selling pressure across spot markets, perpetual futures, and over-the-counter trading.

Key Levels to Watch

The near-term outlook remains bearish unless XRP can reclaim important technical resistance.

A move back above the descending trendline and the 20-day EMA around $1.10–$1.11 would weaken the current bearish structure and indicate improving market sentiment.

A stronger confirmation would come from a daily close above $1.14–$1.15, which would invalidate the descending triangle and shift attention toward the next resistance zone between $1.20 and $1.22.

Until then, traders are likely to keep a close eye on the $1.04 support level, as a decisive break below this area could accelerate downside momentum in the weeks ahead.