US Ukraine Peace Proposal: Security Guarantees Contingent on Agreement First

Article Summary

• US requires a peace agreement with Russia before providing security guarantees to Ukraine.
• President Trump favors negotiating a long-term agreement over immediate support.
• Diverging views between the US and Europe on how to support Ukraine.
• Initial US peace proposal sparks debate over the size of the Ukrainian army.
• European concerns about the US stance shifting towards neutrality.

Details of the US Position

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio has informed European allies that the U.S. wants to reach a peace agreement first before agreeing to provide any security guarantees to Ukraine, according to a European diplomat and a person familiar with the matter. The source confirmed this condition has been central to U.S. suggestions to Kyiv over the past week. In a call with European officials on Tuesday, Rubio stated that President Trump would seek to negotiate long-term security guarantees for Ukraine to ensure Kyiv feels secure.

Ukrainian Perspective

Although NATO members are still struggling with how to support the war-torn country militarily or with intelligence, the Ukrainian leadership has always viewed Western security guarantees as the cornerstone of any viable agreement. Trump has made it clear that he will not invite Ukrainian leadership to visit the White House before an agreement is signed.

Conflicting Interpretations of US Signals

Amidst this backdrop, European allies are scrambling to decode the multiple signals coming from the Trump administration. Rubio also told European allies that security guarantees for Ukraine are a high priority for this administration, separate from other agreed-upon discussion points, and that the U.S. wants the entire set of measures finalized as soon as possible, according to another European diplomat.

Geneva Negotiations

A third European diplomat mentioned that Rubio also alluded to security guarantees for Ukraine during negotiations in Geneva over the weekend, but he did not provide details or reiterate the offer in calls with British and French officials.

Other Topics Raised

According to the diplomat, the Secretary of State also vaguely mentioned several other issues that need to be addressed after an agreement is reached, which the European side interpreted as concerning Ukraine’s territorial integrity and frozen Russian assets.

US State Department Response

The U.S. State Department refuted this description of Rubio’s remarks. “Secretary Rubio and the entire Trump administration have emphatically underscored that security guarantees must be a part of any peace agreement, and he has consistently outlined this in public and private,” said State Department Spokesperson Tommy Pigott.

White House Stance

The White House has also asserted that any final peace plan will include security guarantees. “The Trump administration has repeatedly stated in public and private that any agreement must provide Ukraine with comprehensive security guarantees and deterrence,” said White House Spokesperson Anna Kelly.

Initial Peace Proposal

The circulated initial U.S. peace proposal calls for Ukraine to limit its army size to no more than 600,000 troops, but does not impose any restrictions on the size of the Russian army. Rubio and other U.S. officials subsequently defended the 28-point plan, saying it was just a starting point, not a final determined proposal.

Shift in US Position

However, the Trump administration’s stance in negotiations is increasingly shifting from full support for Ukraine to a more neutral position. According to two European diplomats, Rubio told European counterparts that because the U.S. provides military aid to Ukraine and imposes sanctions on Russia, it is not seen as a fair mediator in negotiations.

Pressure for Strong Guarantees

Nevertheless, the Trump administration is facing some pressure to provide strong guarantees for Ukraine to prevent the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from escalating again.

Congressional Statements

“If Ukraine has to give up any land, that has to be accompanied with a security agreement like NATO Article Five, or a security agreement with the United States, because that’s the only way to prevent Russia from doing it again,” said Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), referring to a clause requiring NATO countries to defend each other if attacked. “That’s the end state of any agreement.”

US Aid to Ukraine

The U.S. has provided nearly $67 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, although most of that funding came under the Biden administration. Since then, the U.S. has developed a NATO plan allowing individual European countries to purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine.

EU Efforts

The EU is also trying to use frozen Russian assets to provide further assistance. A Ukrainian official said they have seen no indications that the Trump administration is willing to increase assistance. France and the United Kingdom have played a leading role in a 33-nation “coalition of the willing” that is weighing the possibility of sending European troops to Ukraine.

European Concerns

But some European countries fear that the Trump administration will tip the scales toward Russia. “There was absolutely no mention of human rights, humanitarian law, international law, or principles,” said one European diplomat, referring to the peace plan. “This is building a new, Swiss-cheese European ‘security architecture.’”