Oil Price Today Jumps 3.3% Toward $96 as Iran Deal Hopes Fade and Supply Risks Return

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude surged 3.3% to settle at $95.82 a barrel, while WTI gained 2.6% to $88.74.
• Oil prices reversed earlier losses after President Donald Trump said the United States no longer needed an agreement with Iran.
• Renewed attacks on regional energy infrastructure and persistent shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz restored part of the geopolitical premium.
• A larger-than-expected 4.7 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories limited the rally but failed to outweigh Middle East supply concerns.

Oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday, with Brent crude moving toward $96 a barrel after fading expectations of a US-Iran agreement brought Middle East supply risks back into focus.

The global benchmark settled $3.06 higher at $95.82 a barrel, representing a daily increase of 3.3%. US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $2.21, or 2.6%, to close at $88.74. The rebound continued during early Friday trading as investors reconsidered the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough that could stabilize regional production and shipping.

Brent and WTI Reverse Earlier Losses

Oil initially traded lower after reports suggested US Vice President JD Vance was considering direct talks with senior Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei. The possibility of renewed negotiations encouraged expectations that the conflict could ease, allowing more oil to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

That optimism faded after Trump said the United States did not “need a deal” with Iran. His comments reduced expectations that Washington would prioritize negotiations and triggered a rapid reversal in crude futures.

The recovery came after a volatile period for the energy market. Brent remains below the six-month high reached in late October and was still heading for a second consecutive weekly decline, reflecting how quickly diplomatic headlines have changed expectations for Middle East exports.

Nevertheless, Thursday’s rally demonstrated that traders remain reluctant to remove the geopolitical risk premium while the conflict continues and shipping routes remain vulnerable.

Iran Deal Hopes Fade After Trump’s Comments

The possibility of an agreement with Iran had recently pressured oil prices because a diplomatic breakthrough could reduce attacks on vessels, ease restrictions on Iranian exports and accelerate the reopening of normal trade routes through the Gulf.

Trump’s latest statement challenged that scenario. The president also directed Vance to concentrate on domestic priorities rather than negotiations with Tehran, according to reports, creating further uncertainty around the diplomatic process.

The two countries remain divided over Iran’s nuclear program, frozen Iranian assets, US military operations and restrictions affecting Iranian ports. Rezaei has also rejected the removal of Iran’s enriched nuclear material from the country, highlighting the distance between the two sides.

For oil traders, the central question is not simply whether negotiations resume. Markets need evidence that an agreement can materially reduce attacks and restore reliable traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep the Oil Market Vulnerable

Middle East crude exports have recovered from their earlier disruption, but much of that recovery depends on alternative routes and enhanced security measures rather than a permanent reduction in regional tensions.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the most important risk. The International Maritime Organization has verified more than 130 attacks against commercial vessels in the area since the conflict began, with at least 25 seafarers killed. The continued threat has increased insurance costs, reduced tanker availability and forced some vessels to take longer routes.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline has become particularly important because it transports crude from eastern production areas to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing some exports to bypass Hormuz.

The Houthis recently claimed attacks on pumping stations along the pipeline, including a drone strike against pumping station number seven. The full extent of any damage has not been independently established, but the claims were enough to remind traders that alternative export infrastructure is also exposed to disruption.

This means regional output can recover while the risk of another sudden supply interruption remains elevated. Any confirmed damage to pipelines, terminals or tankers could quickly push Brent back toward $100.

US Crude Inventory Build Fails to Stop the Rally

Bearish US inventory data provided a counterweight to the geopolitical concerns.

Commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, increased by approximately 4.7 million barrels during the week ended November 6. Analysts had expected a decline of roughly 600,000 to 700,000 barrels.

Total commercial stocks reached 414.4 million barrels, ending five consecutive weeks of inventory declines. The build reflected higher imports and lower exports, although inventories remained approximately 4% below their five-year seasonal average.

Gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels, while distillate stocks climbed by 4.1 million barrels. US crude production also edged up to approximately 14 million barrels per day.

Under normal circumstances, such a broad inventory increase would place considerable pressure on crude prices. The market’s ability to rally despite the report suggests geopolitical developments currently carry more weight than short-term US supply data.

Could Brent Crude Break Above $100?

The area around $96 represents the first resistance level for Brent. A sustained break could expose the psychological $100 threshold, followed by the late-October high.

Three factors could support another advance:

• A further deterioration in US-Iran relations
• Confirmed damage to Gulf energy infrastructure or additional tanker attacks
• Evidence that alternative export routes cannot fully compensate for disrupted Hormuz traffic

On the downside, Brent could retreat toward $92 if diplomatic talks resume or Middle East exports continue normalizing. A break below that level would bring $90 back into focus.

For WTI, $90 is the immediate resistance area. Support is located near $87, followed by approximately $85.

Trade Crude Oil 24/7 & Unlock Up to $5,000 in Rewards

Looking to trade oil price movements? Explore Crude Oil CFDs on Markets.com and access 24/7 trading opportunities. Take positions based on your market outlook and discover up to $5,000 in combined rewards as an eligible new client, subject to applicable terms. Register today.

Higher Oil Prices Add to Inflation Concerns

The renewed oil rally could also influence expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve policy. More expensive crude raises fuel and transportation costs, potentially slowing the decline in headline inflation.

That risk is particularly important while US Treasury yields remain elevated and investors debate whether the Federal Reserve will need to maintain restrictive interest rates. A move in Brent above $100 would intensify concerns about another energy-driven inflation shock.

The near-term oil price outlook will therefore depend on two competing forces. Rising US inventories and recovering regional production could limit gains, but fading peace hopes and continued threats to Gulf infrastructure leave the market exposed to another sharp supply-risk rally.