Oil Price Today: Brent Slips Below $106 as Supply Risks Keep Markets on Edge

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude futures traded at $105.75 a barrel and WTI at $92.96, both down 0.8% in early Asian trading on October 13.
• Middle East shipping risks remain a concern following attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz.
• US inflation data due Wednesday could influence the dollar, interest-rate expectations and oil market sentiment.

Oil Prices Ease After Monday’s Rally

Oil prices fell in early Asian trading on Tuesday, October 13, giving back part of the previous session’s gains. Front-month Brent crude futures stood at $105.75 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures traded at $92.96. Both benchmarks were down 0.8% at 00:21 GMT, or 08:21 in Singapore and China.

The pullback followed Monday’s rebound as renewed security concerns challenged hopes for an improvement in global energy supplies. Tuesday’s early decline may reflect a correction after those gains, although the available reporting does not establish a single cause.

These figures are an intraday futures snapshot rather than closing prices. Oil can move quickly as new information emerges about shipping conditions, infrastructure damage and diplomatic negotiations.

The immediate question is whether the retreat continues as trading progresses or whether fresh supply concerns bring buyers back into the market.

Middle East Shipping Risks Remain in Focus

Monday’s advance followed renewed attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents raised concerns about the reliability of crude shipments from the region, offsetting some optimism over potential additional Russian diesel exports.

For oil markets, the distinction between an attack and a sustained interruption matters. An incident can lift prices through concern about future losses even before a measurable reduction in exports appears. A longer disruption would have more direct consequences for physical availability.

Shipping security also affects the cost of moving oil. Higher freight charges, insurance costs or delays can make delivered crude more expensive even when production remains available.

This means headline production figures alone may provide an incomplete picture. Oil must move from producing fields through pipelines, terminals and shipping routes before it reaches refiners. Problems at any stage can tighten supplies in particular regions.

The next important evidence will be whether exporters maintain shipments and whether tanker operators can move cargoes reliably. Further attacks could renew upward pressure, while improved maritime security could allow part of the risk premium to unwind.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters for Oil Prices

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and is a major route for international energy exports.

The International Energy Agency’s February 2026 factsheet estimated that approximately 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait in 2025. That represented around one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, with roughly 80% destined for Asia.

Those historical figures explain the route’s importance; they do not measure today’s traffic or the volume affected by the latest attacks.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that can bypass the strait. However, the IEA estimated available alternative export capacity at approximately 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels a day in its February assessment. Other regional exporters have fewer options.

The market implication is that additional production cannot automatically resolve a transportation disruption. Spare barrels are less useful to international buyers if they cannot reach an export terminal or pass safely through the required route.

Russian Diesel Supplies Offer a Potential Offset

Developments involving Russia provide a counterweight to Middle East supply concerns.

President Donald Trump announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday. However, subsequent attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities and Ukraine’s indication that it could continue targeting Russian refineries raised questions about whether the arrangement would hold.

The proposed pause in attacks was also linked to efforts to increase Russian diesel exports. Additional deliveries could ease pressure in fuel markets, but damage to refining infrastructure creates uncertainty over the volumes Russia can supply.

Diesel and crude oil are connected, but they are different markets. More diesel exports could improve fuel availability without producing an equivalent increase in crude supplies.

For traders, implementation matters more than announcements. Confirmed cargoes, functioning refineries and a durable reduction in attacks would provide stronger evidence of supply relief than an agreement whose terms remain unsettled.

US Inflation Data Adds Another Catalyst

The US Consumer Price Index report for September is scheduled for Wednesday, October 14, at 08:30 Eastern Time, or 20:30 in Singapore and China. Producer Price Index data follows on Thursday at the same time.

These releases could affect oil through changes in the dollar, Treasury yields and expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

A stronger dollar can make dollar-priced crude more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Higher borrowing costs can also weigh on economic activity and expectations for fuel consumption.

However, those effects may compete with supply risks. Oil could remain supported despite a firmer dollar if traders become more concerned about the availability of physical barrels.

The composition of inflation will also matter. Energy-driven price increases and broader underlying inflation can have different implications for monetary policy and demand. The market response will depend on how the figures compare with expectations.