Article Highlights
- Surprising market performance following non-farm payrolls and strong Nvidia data.
- Impact of hawkish Federal Reserve stance and AI concerns on market sentiment.
- Technical analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum price trends.
- Overview of ETF flows.
- Key news and reports influencing the market.
Introduction
This comprehensive market performance analysis reviews recent developments in both stocks and cryptocurrencies. With particular focus on unexpected market reactions to key macroeconomic data and corporate earnings, as well as the impact of a hawkish Federal Reserve sentiment and concerns over Artificial Intelligence. We'll also explore the technical trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum, provide an overview of ETF flows, and summarize key news and reports influencing the market.
Market Performance and Unexpected Reactions
Despite Nvidia's strong earnings and the U.S. September non-farm payrolls report showing better-than-expected job additions and an unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the market experienced a surprising intraday reversal. After a strong opening, the S&P 500 closed lower, and Nvidia's stock also declined, exacerbating the sell-off in risk assets. Analysts believe the inability of positive news to push the market higher is a strong bearish signal.
Federal Reserve Stance and AI Impact
The hawkish Federal Reserve stance has further clouded the outlook for interest rate cuts, with Chairman Powell indicating that another rate cut in December is "far from a done deal." Additionally, the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence has raised concerns about the labor market and corporate capital expenditures. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the large gap between current financial wealth and actual currency has put the market in a bubble zone similar to 1929 and 2000, and pointed out that the AI boom has exacerbated wealth inequality. Given this, market sentiment is extremely fragile, and investors have entered "profit and loss protection mode" due to the multiple pressures of technical sell-offs, liquidity depletion, and large option expirations, making them unusually sensitive to any developments.
Bitcoin Analysis
Bitcoin was particularly affected by these developments, with its price fluctuations closely tied to the macro environment and market sentiment. After falling below the psychological $90,000 mark, it dropped to multi-month lows near $86,000. Most of the market is leaning towards a bearish outlook for the future. Gareth Soloway, a 27-year Wall Street trader, predicts that Bitcoin may fall to the $73,000 to $75,000 range in the short term. He attributes Bitcoin's underperformance compared to tech stocks to its reduced volatility, decreased institutional buying, and the overall de-risking trend in the market. Analyst Banni Yu Xia gave two assumptions, both of which see a short-term decline to $78,000 to $81,000, and even if it rebounds in early next year to $110,000 to $120,000, it will not create a new historical high. Ali pointed to a significant decrease in whale activity and gave a critical support level of $82,045.
Positive Outlook on Bitcoin
However, there are also bullish views and calls for accumulation. Analyst Pentoshi believes that a rapid decline of over 30% has put the market in a locally oversold zone, and the $83,000 to $85,000 range is a good opportunity to bet on a rebound. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, stated that because institutions like Strategy are holding their coins long-term without selling, it is difficult for the market to return to the cycle bottom of $56,000, and the current range is a reasonable long-term accumulation range. Technically, Material Indicators points out that the $82,600 to $78,000 range has accumulated a large number of buy orders, and historical data indicates that this usually signals a price recovery. Bitwise analyst André Dragosch defined the range between BlackRock's IBIT cost price of $84,000 and Strategy's cost price of $73,000 as the market's "maximum pain" range, which is also a potential bottom-building area.
Ethereum Analysis
Ethereum is also facing tremendous pressure, with the price falling 30% in the past month, dropping below a four-month low of $2,800. Veteran trader Gareth Soloway believes that the $2,700 to $2,800 range is an important swing trade buying support point. However, the prevailing market sentiment is more pessimistic, with one analysis suggesting that a replay of a 2022 bear market is repeating, indicating that ETH may fall further to the 200-week moving average at $2,450 for final support. Analyst EliZ emphasizes that although prices have paused near the 0.75 Fibonacci level, this is more like a "breather" in the middle of the decline rather than a "serious rebound." The continuous decreasing on-chain volume indicates that real demand has not entered the market, and any narrative about the bottom is premature.
ETF Flows
A sharp decline in institutional demand is a key factor in ETH's weakness, and data shows that global Ethereum investment products, including U.S. spot ETFs, have experienced their largest weekly outflows in two months. Worse, companies holding ETH as a reserve asset are suffering huge unrealized losses, with an average return on investment of -25% to -48%, resulting in their market capitalization relative to net asset value (mNAV) falling below 1, weakening their ability to refinance. According to Ted's statistics, BlackRock sold $1.1 billion worth of ETH this month, further exacerbating the selling pressure in the market. While some altcoins are still rising, the top 100 tokens by market capitalization have surrendered and are trending downward.
Other News and Reports
It is worth noting that the price of the Nillion token plummeted by more than 60%, and the project blamed a market maker for unauthorized selling, and has now used the treasury to repurchase and is preparing to take legal action. In addition, the highly anticipated parallel EVM project MegaETH announced that it will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge activity with a total cap of $250 million on November 25, aiming to attract initial liquidity for the mainnet launch. At the same time, as market volatility has increased, the crypto exchange Bullish has attracted attention from JPMorgan Chase for its better-than-expected performance in the third quarter, and although the target price has been adjusted, it is still considered to have significant upside potential. Woodie's Ark Invest has continued to buy shares of Bullish for 3 days.
Key Data
As of November 21, 2024, 13:00 HKT:
- Bitcoin: $85,611 (YTD -8.46%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $100.9 Billion
- Ethereum: $2,792 (YTD -16.35%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $43.12 Billion
- Fear & Greed Index: 15 (Extreme Fear)
- Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei
- Market Share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 11.9%
- Upbit 24-Hour Trading Volume Ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, SOL, DOGE
- 24-Hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 48.18% / 51.82%
- Sector Gainers and Losers: SocialFi Sector down 9.88%, L2 Sector down 8.4%
- 24-Hour Liquidation Data: A total of 248,275 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $863 Million, of which $415 Million was BTC liquidation, $185 Million was ETH liquidation, and $34.81 Million was SOL liquidation
ETF Flows
As of November 20:
- Bitcoin ETF: -$903 Million, Second Highest in History
- Ethereum ETF: -$262 Million, Continuous Net Outflow for 8 Days
- Solana ETF: +$23.66 Million
- XRP ETF: +$118 Million
Forward Looking
- Binance will delist XCN, FLM, PERP perpetual contracts on November 21
- Binance will delist LA/FDUSD, SAHARA/BNB and other spot trading pairs on November 21
- Binance Alpha will launch ULTIMILAND(ARTX), MineD and Kyuzo's Friends
- Top 100 market cap coins biggest drop today: Telcoin down 16.9%, Canton Network down 16.1%, Dash down 15.2%, NEAR Protocol down 14.3%, Virtuals Protocol down 13.7%.
Hot News
- Irys released IRYS token economics: initial circulation accounts for 20%, 8% for airdrops and future incentives
- Jesse's Creator Coin was sniped as soon as it was launched, and 26% of the supply was bought in the same block for arbitrage of US$1.3 million
- A Bitcoin whale made a floating profit of over US$57 million from short selling
- CZ's rival whales liquidated all ETH/XRP/DOGE long positions, and the current floating loss has exceeded US$32 million
- Sign launched a sovereign Layer2 solution based on BNB Chain, which supports stablecoins and RWA on the chain
- MOVE token repurchase continues to return, and Movement transfers another 50 million Bitmine tokens to Binance
- Bitmine repurchased another 17,242 ETH, worth approximately US$49.07 million
- US listed company ANPA plans to purchase up to US$50 million of EDU tokens within 24 months
- MegaETH will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25, with a total cap of US$250 million
- FG NEXUS has reduced approximately 10,000 ETH compared to the end of the third quarter, and currently holds approximately 40,000 ETH
- US employment unexpectedly increased by 119,000 jobs in September, making the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts more complicated
- ETHZilla disclosed that it currently holds 94,060 ETH, worth US$285 million
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