Macro Outlook: Fed Week, Digital Currency Updates, and Market Analysis

Key Highlights:

• Next Week's Macro Outlook: A pivotal week for the Federal Reserve with a deluge of economic data.
• Beijing Business Daily: Digital currency promotion infiltrates social media and e-commerce platforms.
• Arthur Hayes: Warns about the MON digital currency and points out its high risks.
• Santiment: Market showing signs of fatigue, requires clearer signals.
• Aster: Announces the S3 airdrop timeline.
• Sahara AI: Responds to market volatility and affirms no security risks.

Beijing Business Daily: Digital Currency Promotion Infiltrates Social Media

The Beijing Business Daily financial group pointed out that digital currency promotion has infiltrated platforms such as Xiao Hong Shu, Taobao, and Xianyu. These platforms, seemingly for life sharing or newcomer benefits, are actually channels for digital currency promotion, creating a carefully woven trap for ordinary individuals. From the perspective of the form of diversion, it is roughly divided into creating topics to create IP, setting advertising links on the platform, etc. The industry believes that an "anti-siege" battle against the chaos of cryptocurrency is also being launched, but completely ending this game requires a joint effort from regulators, platforms, and users. Earlier, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, publicly stated that he would continue to crack down on domestic virtual currency operations and speculation. Since 2017, the People's Bank of China, together with relevant departments, has successively issued a number of policy documents to prevent and deal with the risks of domestic virtual currency transactions, and these policy documents are still valid. In the next step, the People's Bank of China will continue to work with law enforcement departments to crack down on domestic virtual currency operations and speculation, maintain economic and financial order, while closely tracking and dynamically assessing the development of foreign stablecoins.

Next Week's Macro Outlook: A Pivotal Week for the Federal Reserve

Because the Chicago Mercantile Exchange “disconnected the network cable” on Friday due to a data center failure, the volatility of spot gold and silver has been violent this week, and continued to rise after the futures prices were restored. The price of gold rose by nearly $150 this week, returning to above $4,200. The rise of silver was even more fierce, once surging to $56, a new record high. Next week, the Federal Reserve will enter the usual "quiet period" before the December meeting, and a lot of economic data will be released. In addition, with large traders returning from vacation, the market may fluctuate violently next week. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week: Monday 22:45, the final reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in November; Tuesday 09:00, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers a speech at a memorial event; Tuesday 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman testifies before a committee of the House of Representatives; Wednesday 21:15, the US ADP non-agricultural employment number in November; Wednesday 22:45, the final reading of the US S&P Global Services PMI in November; Thursday 20:30, the US Challenger company layoffs in November; Thursday 21:30, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week ending November 29; Friday 23:00, the initial value of the US inflation rate expectation for one year in December, the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in December, the annual rate of the core PCE price index in September, the monthly rate of personal spending in September, and the monthly rate of the core PCE price index in September. After a series of hawkish statements by many Federal Reserve speakers, the doves have returned in the past 10 days, bringing interest rate cuts at the December meeting back to the negotiating table. This has caused the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut on December 10 to soar from about 25% to nearly 80%, and this dramatic reversal has resonated in the financial markets. Federal Reserve officials usually guide Wall Street toward their final decision before the meeting to avoid surprises. In more than two years (covering a total of 20 Federal Reserve meetings), traders have only fully digested the results three times when a policy decision was imminent.

Arthur Hayes: Tether is Buying Gold and Bitcoin in Anticipation of Interest Rate Cuts

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes commented on the Tether audit report on the X platform, saying: "The Tether team is in the early stages of a large-scale interest rate deal. They believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, which will greatly reduce interest income. To counter this, they are buying gold and Bitcoin. In theory, as currency prices fall, the prices of these assets will theoretically go bankrupt. "

Santiment: Market Showing Signs of Fatigue

Cryptocurrency sentiment analysis platform Santiment stated in a report that the market is showing signs of fatigue after a slight rebound, and the clear buying signal last week has disappeared. Ethereum is approaching a strong resistance zone between US$3,200 and US$3,250. This price level will be a critical test of market strength. In addition, the social trend of "buying the dips" has ended, replaced by fear and potential liquidation risks, indicating that market sentiment is fragile. On-chain data shows that the buying speed of large Bitcoin wallets is slowing down, while small retail wallets are beginning to increase their holdings - this pattern usually indicates that the market is about to fall. In short, caution is paramount. After a slight rebound, the market is currently facing many challenges, and the confidence of major players is waning. Data shows that waiting for clearer signals is the wisest course of action.