Japanese Prime Minister's Approval Ratings Surge Amid Election Assessment

Analysis of the Japanese Prime Minister's Rising Popularity

Foreign media reports indicate a significant surge in the Japanese Prime Minister's approval ratings in local media polls. This comes at a crucial time as the assessment of the election performance last month is imminent, potentially determining his political fate. Polls conducted by Kyodo News and Yomiuri Shimbun show an increase in the Prime Minister's approval ratings by over 10 percentage points, with a majority of respondents believing he should remain in office. According to the Kyodo poll, approval ratings rose by 12.5% to 35.4%, while the Yomiuri poll showed a 17% jump to 39%. Another poll by Mainichi Shimbun also indicated a 4% increase to 33%. The Kyodo poll also revealed a decrease in the proportion of respondents who believe he should resign, falling by 11.6% to currently 57.5% who think he should stay in office, compared to only 40% who believe he should step down. Yomiuri Shimbun's analysis attributes this rise in the Prime Minister's popularity to several factors, including the trade agreement reached with the United States, and the government's announcement of increased rice production to address significant price increases. The Mainichi Shimbun poll also showed the Prime Minister as the top choice among respondents as a potential successor, but other poll results varied. In the Kyodo poll, about a quarter of respondents chose a staunch conservative as a potential leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, while about a fifth supported the Minister of Agriculture. The Prime Minister came in third with 13.1%. The Yomiuri Shimbun poll results were generally consistent with those of Kyodo. The Prime Minister faces critical moments, as the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to finalize the results of the investigation into the "humiliating" July election. At that time, the ruling coalition lost control of the upper house. Local media reported that the results of this investigation are expected to be released in early September, rather than the expected date at the end of this month. It is widely believed that this conclusion will clarify responsibility for the election loss within the Liberal Democratic Party. If senior party members close to the Prime Minister resign, it could weaken his position within the party, but it could also be a way to publicly take responsibility, allowing him to continue in office. Despite voices within the Liberal Democratic Party calling for the Prime Minister to resign, there are no established procedures that can force the current Prime Minister to step down. Meanwhile, a party committee is studying whether an early party leadership election can be held, rather than waiting for the Prime Minister to resign or even until his term ends in 2027. Typically, amending the schedule of party leadership elections requires the support of a majority of Liberal Democratic Party members of parliament and representatives of local branches. However, with the Prime Minister's popularity rising, and his insistence on staying in office, the momentum for changing leadership may weaken. Currently, the momentum for changing leadership has not gained the momentum expected after the election. Previously, three times that the Liberal Democratic Party lost a majority of seats in the upper house led to the resignation of the Prime Minister at that time. Forming a government without a majority in both houses may make the Prime Minister's opponents hesitant to push for a struggle for party leadership at this time. At the same time, the Prime Minister consistently emphasizes his determination to stay in office, considering that ongoing challenges, such as the tense regional security environment, are important reasons to avoid a political vacuum. Last weekend, he met with the South Korean President, and pledged to deepen cooperation on a series of common issues, including North Korea's denuclearization, and facing an aging society. The two sides also reaffirmed their commitment to trilateral cooperation with the United States. The South Korean President is scheduled to travel to the United States to meet with President Trump.

The Impact of Economic and Political Factors on Popularity

It's worth noting that the popularity of political leaders is often significantly influenced by prevailing economic and political conditions. Successful trade agreements and sound economic decisions can bolster public confidence in the government, while economic crises or natural disasters can lead to a sharp decline in popularity. Additionally, security issues and foreign policy play an important role in shaping public opinion, especially in the face of increasing regional and global tensions.