Israel Offers Gradual Withdrawal from South Lebanon Contingent on Hezbollah Disarmament

Israel Offers Gradual Withdrawal from South Lebanon Contingent on Hezbollah Disarmament

Israel stated on Monday that it is prepared to "gradually withdraw" its forces deployed in southern Lebanon over the past year, provided that the Lebanese Armed Forces disarm Hezbollah. This offer follows the Lebanese cabinet's approval earlier this month of a framework proposed by US envoy Tom Barack, aimed at disarming Hezbollah, the Shia militant group that has long been Lebanon's most powerful non-state actor. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office acknowledged the Lebanese move in a statement on Monday, calling it a "significant decision." The office stated that if the Lebanese Armed Forces take the "necessary steps to implement the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will take reciprocal actions, including, in coordination with a US-led security mechanism, a phased reduction of (Israeli forces') presence."

Escalation and Ongoing Tensions

Since a US-brokered ceasefire last November ended the worst round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in two decades, the Israeli military has occupied five elevated positions on the Lebanese side of the de facto border between the two countries. Israel also conducts near-daily airstrikes in southern and eastern Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of attempting to rebuild its positions south of the Litani River, which extends up to 30 kilometers north of the Israeli border. However, Israel's statement on Monday fell short of Beirut's expectations, with local officials insisting that Lebanon has met the conditions set by the US roadmap for its government. "Now is the time for Israel to show good faith and take a step in the right direction," said one source familiar with the matter. The source described Israel's conditional offer as "not enough," but said they would reserve full judgment until a meeting in Beirut on Tuesday following Barack's visit to Israel. During his visit to Lebanon last week, Barack stated that "the Lebanese government has done what it can," and "now what we need is for Israel to abide by this equal handshake agreement."

A US Plan for De-escalation

The Lebanese cabinet has entrusted the country's army with drafting a plan for the disarmament of Hezbollah, and the plan is expected to be submitted to the government next week. The US plan calls for Israel to scale back its attacks and withdraw from Lebanese territory. The plan stipulates that Israel must cease its land, sea, and air military operations within 15 days of Lebanon announcing a decision to disarm the group.

Hezbollah's Rejection and the Threat of Civil War

Hezbollah has refused to acknowledge the plan, and its leader Naim Qassem threatened earlier this month that a civil war could erupt if the country continues to move forward with the US plan. Just as Netanyahu's statement was released on Monday, the Israeli Air Force carried out two additional airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing at least one person. The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah began in late 2023 when the group fired rockets into Israel in solidarity with Hamas. After a year of fighting largely confined to a narrow strip of land on either side of the "Blue Line" (the UN-demarcated border between the two countries), Israel sharply escalated hostilities last October, launching an intense bombing campaign followed by an invasion. Under the ceasefire agreement that ended the fighting, Hezbollah was required to withdraw north of the Litani River, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) were supposed to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 60 days, to be replaced by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). However, after the 60-day period expired, Israeli troops remained in Lebanon, with Israeli officials saying that some Hezbollah fighters remained south of the Litani River and that the LAF, which was supposed to deploy to southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah's return upon the IDF withdrawal, had not acted quickly enough.

Understanding the Broader Context

It's crucial to understand that the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict is deeply intertwined with regional dynamics, including the Syrian civil war and the broader Iran-Israel proxy conflict. Any lasting solution will require addressing these underlying issues and fostering a climate of regional stability. Hezbollah's substantial influence in Lebanese politics and society further complicates the disarmament process. The group provides social services and wields considerable political power, making its disarmament a delicate and potentially destabilizing undertaking. A comprehensive approach that considers the socio-economic factors contributing to Hezbollah's support base is essential for sustainable peace.