US-Iran Tensions: Early Diplomatic Explorations Amidst Escalation

US Diplomatic Maneuvers Towards Iran: Exploring Negotiation Pathways

In a potential shift in its approach to Tehran, recent reports reveal that the administration of President Donald Trump has commenced exploratory discussions concerning future steps, including the possibility of opening channels for peaceful negotiation with Iran. These moves come three weeks after the commencement of military operations, suggesting Washington's pursuit of multiple avenues that could lead to an end to the escalation.

De-escalation Efforts and Laying Diplomatic Foundations

President Trump recently stated that he is considering the option of "gradual de-escalation" of military operations against Iran. However, US officials estimate that the coming period may still witness continued military operations for another two to three weeks. Concurrently, President Trump's advisory team is showing increasing interest in creating a conducive environment for launching diplomatic rounds that could contribute to calming the situation.

Potential Roles for Key Figures in the Diplomatic Process

According to informed sources, President Trump's Special Envoy, Jared Kushner, and advisor Steve Witkoff, may be among the individuals involved in the preliminary discussions concerning these potential diplomatic endeavors. The involvement of figures at this level indicates the seriousness of the efforts being made to open dialogue.

Core Conditions for Any Future Agreement

Sources confirm that any agreement aimed at ending the current conflict must include fundamental provisions, most notably the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for international navigation. Additionally, this requires addressing the issue of Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and reaching long-term agreements covering Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missile capabilities, and its network of support for proxy groups in the region.

Role of Regional Mediators in Conveying Messages

Although there have been no direct communications between the United States and Iran in the past few days, countries like Egypt, Qatar, and the United Kingdom are playing an important role in relaying messages between the two parties. Reports indicate that the Turkish Foreign Minister discussed avenues for ending the war with his Iranian and Egyptian counterparts, as well as the EU's foreign policy chief. Egypt and Qatar have informed the US and Israel that Iran is showing interest in negotiation, albeit with initially very stringent conditions.

Iran's Stance: Six Conditions to Halt 'Defensive' War

According to a security official, Iran has set six strategic conditions to halt what it describes as a "defensive war" against what it calls the "American and Zionist regime." The official explained that this plan will be implemented in phases, and a ceasefire is not expected soon due to the evolving battlefield situation. These conditions include:

• A guarantee against the recurrence of war.
• The closure of US military bases in the region.
• Repelling the aggression and paying financial compensation to Iran.
• Ending wars on all regional fronts.
• Implementing a new legal regime for the Strait of Hormuz.
• Prosecuting and extraditing individuals associated with anti-Iranian media.

US Position: Six Commitments Expected from Tehran

For their part, US officials believe they have succeeded in curbing Iran's momentum and are demanding six commitments from Tehran, which are:

• No development of missile programs for five years.
• A complete halt to uranium enrichment activities.
• The dismantling of nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, which were bombed by the US and Israel last year.
• The implementation of strict external supervision protocols for the research, development, and use of centrifuges and related equipment that could advance a nuclear weapons program.
• Signing arms control treaties with regional countries, with a maximum missile range limit of one thousand kilometers.
• Ceasing financial support for proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza.

Negotiation Challenges and Mutual Doubts

Iran has repeatedly rejected many of these demands in the past, and Tehran's leaders point to the extreme difficulty of negotiating with a US president who previously participated in talks and then launched a sudden attack. Iran's Foreign Minister recently stated that restoring stability in the Strait of Hormuz requires the US and Israel to cease their attacks on Iran and commit to not repeating them in the future.

Trump's Stance on Negotiations and Iranian Conditions

A US official indicated that President Trump does not oppose negotiations but currently has no intention of meeting Iran's demands for a ceasefire. The official also stated that Trump views Iran's compensation demands as "unacceptable conditions." However, other officials did not rule out the possibility of room for negotiation regarding the return of frozen assets to Tehran. These officials suggest that the terminology used can be adjusted, such as referring to "repatriation of frozen funds" instead of "compensation," to facilitate reaching an agreement within the Iranian political system, emphasizing that this requires reaching a stage conducive to such discussions.

Identifying the Appropriate Mediator

The Trump administration is currently working to identify the most suitable counterpart in Iran to engage with, as well as determining the most appropriate country to serve as a mediator. Trump's advisors believe that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was a key mediator in past negotiations, may merely be a "mouthpiece" lacking the authority to finalize agreements. US officials are seeking to identify the true decision-maker in Iran and how to contact them.

Seeking a Trusted Mediator

Although Oman served as a mediator in previous nuclear negotiation rounds, the US is now seeking to change the mediator due to a lack of trust in Oman, preferring Qatar as an ideal candidate. According to US officials, Qatar has proven its efficiency and trustworthiness as a mediator in issues such as Gaza.

Qatar's Limited Agreement to Mediate

Sources have indicated that Qatar has expressed willingness to provide assistance behind the scenes but is unwilling to assume the role of the main official mediator. These developments suggest that President Trump's advisory team aims for prior preparation should negotiations between the US and Iran materialize in the near future.

Prospects of the Proposed Agreement

Sources reveal that the terms being drafted by Witkoff and Kushner are expected to be largely consistent with the proposals they submitted in Geneva two days before the military operations began, reflecting a continuity in the proposed approach.