US-Iran Conflict: Diplomatic Stalemate and Global Economic Ramifications

Understanding the US-Iran Standoff: Beyond the Rhetoric

Amidst escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, President Donald Trump's assertion that the conflict's end is within his purview, driven by an "in-my-bones" feeling, resonates. However, a deeper analysis reveals complexities far beyond a single individual's decision. Over the past week, the conflict has intensified, sending shockwaves through the global economy. Concurrently, Iranian leadership and military commanders have signaled that Tehran will not yield quickly and will only agree to a ceasefire under its own terms.

The Iranian Perspective: A Strategy of Survival and Resilience

A Western official notes that while focus is fixed on Trump's unpredictability, a major power with an independent will is being overlooked. Insiders, diplomats, and experts close to the Iranian regime suggest that Iran views this conflict as an existential threat, urgently seeking to re-establish its deterrence capability to ensure adversaries do not launch further attacks.

Indications point to Iran preparing for a protracted war of attrition, and it will only agree to a ceasefire if it secures guarantees against future attacks from the US and Israel. An individual close to the Iranian regime states, "We need guarantees, and we will not back down even if the war lasts a year. If Iran is destroyed, the entire region will be its accomplice."

The Logic of Iranian Retaliation and the IRGC's Operational Doctrine

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a force of 180,000 elite troops, is spearheading the retaliatory actions. These include missile and drone strikes on US bases, Gulf energy facilities, and international shipping lanes, creating regional chaos.

This individual explains, "The IRGC is driven by ideology and unafraid of death. They firmly believe there is a plot for regime change, and agreeing to a ceasefire would inevitably lead to the return of the US and Israel." Consequently, even if Trump declares "victory" and halts US bombing, Iran may continue to attack Israel and Gulf states, while persistently threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US-Iran Negotiation Impasse and Diplomatic Obstacles

Trump claims Iran's military power is "destroyed" and asserted last weekend that Tehran wants to negotiate, but he "hasn't made a deal yet because the terms aren't good enough."

Conversely, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi directly refuted claims of Iran seeking peace or negotiation as "pure fantasy." He also denied reports of restarting communication channels with US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, suggesting such claims aim to appease volatile energy markets.

Regional officials indicate that neither side is taking steps to advance a diplomatic ceasefire. Israel's assassination of Ali Larijani, a senior conservative figure in the Iranian regime, on Tuesday is expected to further dampen hopes for renewed peace talks. A regional diplomat described Larijani as a pivotal figure in any diplomatic process.

This diplomat anticipates that if Trump withdraws troops, Iran would cease targeting US assets, thereby claiming it forced the US withdrawal.

Parties' Assessments of Ceasefire Conditions and Conflict Trajectory

However, the diplomat believes Iran would continue targeting Israel, which Tehran identifies as the instigator of the war. He added that the Strait of Hormuz could be "partially weaponized," with Iran deciding whether vessels can pass.

Israeli officials also state they are prepared for a protracted conflict but rely on US military support and are expected to follow Trump's decisions.

The diplomat summarizes the difficulty: "There will be no ceasefire without a deal between the US and Iran." However, he expects Iran would not agree to a temporary ceasefire akin to last year's Hamas-Israel truce, where Israel continued to strike Gaza post-ceasefire.

"The content of any agreement remains undefined," the diplomat stated. "Once negotiations begin, the difficulty will be immense."

Sanam Vakil, an analyst at Chatham House, suggests that Iran's ceasefire is not in its interest unless it secures the requested guarantees and sanctions relief in a post-war agreement.

"Both of these objectives are extremely difficult to achieve," she says. "Without guarantees of sanctions relief and no further attacks, Iran will not stand down."

High-Level Iranian Declarations of Long-Term War and US-Israeli Objectives

As the conflict enters its third week, Iran's leadership is signaling to its populace that the regime is prepared for a prolonged war. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a senior IRGC-aligned leader, stated, "America does not understand how to start or end a war in the region. We will not stand idly by as Israel (the Zionist regime) and the United States establish a new order.""

Speaking on state television this week, Ghalibaf, the Parliament Speaker, emphasized that Iran's precondition for a ceasefire is "the end of the threat of war." "This is our clear and firm demand," he stated. "We will absolutely not accept the resumption of hostilities five months after a ceasefire.""

The US and Israel have vowed to destroy Iran's missile capabilities and have been conducting day and night bombing campaigns since February 28th. The Pentagon claims to have struck nearly 8,000 targets, while Israel reports similar numbers of attacks. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to "overturn the Iranian regime and push for regime change.""

Iran's Dual Considerations and the Strait of Hormuz's Strategic Deterrence

Rob Malley, a former US official and envoy to Iran under President Biden, explains that Tehran has two considerations: First, the war inflicts significant damage on the regime's infrastructure and military, potentially destabilizing its internal security long-term, thus creating a desire to end the conflict. Second, it aims to ensure the US and global economy pay a price steep enough to deter future aggression.

Iran's most potent weapon is its de facto ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas typically transits.

Western officials state that while Iran had previously threatened to block the strait, "they didn't know if they could until they acted." "Now they know, and the effect has been significant," the official says. "The risk is that they will continue to hold the global economy hostage."

Malley suggests that if the US ends the war, Iran might face pressure for a ceasefire from regional states and its traditional allies.

However, Western officials comment, "I don't see a future for the Islamic Republic's survival, nor do I know what conditions the regime would need to say 'put down your arms, ceasefire and rebuild.'" "I am not sure they can rebuild; this points to an extremely dark outcome."

The IRGC's Asymmetric Tactics and Current Combat Readiness

Insiders close to the Iranian regime suggest that the IRGC confronts the world's most advanced and powerful militaries more like an insurgent group, abandoning fixed bases and dispersing forces to mitigate strike risks while launching retaliatory attacks.

"The IRGC understands asymmetric warfare well, and this is precisely what they are doing – air strikes cannot defeat guerrillas," the individual states, drawing parallels to Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

This individual insists that despite thousands of strikes from the US and Israel, Iran continues to produce missiles and launchers in clandestine underground locations. He adds that Iran is controlling the frequency of launches to ensure ammunition is not depleted, thereby sustaining a "long war."

However, the US and Israel claim to have significantly degraded Iran's drone and missile capabilities, with strike firepower decreasing by over 90% compared to the conflict's initial stages.

Tehran, however, continues its daily attacks. An insider states, "One missile per month could inflict significant damage on Dubai."

The precedent of Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea over the past two years demonstrates the substantial destructive power of a persistent, long-term threat.

US Intelligence Assessments and Iran's Future Core Influencing Factors

Trump's Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, stated on Wednesday, "Iran and its proxies still have the capability and are continuing to attack US and allied interests."

She informed the Senate Intelligence Committee, "If the hostile regime survives, it will initiate multi-year plans to rebuild its missile and drone forces."

Western officials find it difficult to ascertain how long Iran's missile and drone attacks can be sustained.

"Iran's counterattack was not unexpected; what's more surprising is their persistence," the official says. "We know more about Iran's capabilities than ever before, and the situation has improved, but it's not a sea change."

The official further states that the core factor determining Iran's future is not the bombs from the US and Israel, but "the relationship between the regime and the people." "Currently, the people have not spoken – the Iranian populace remains entirely on the sidelines."