Iran-US Ceasefire: Gulf States Express Deep Concerns Over Regional Stability

Iran-US Ceasefire: Tehran Celebrates, Gulf States Grapple with Deepening Concerns

In a move that Tehran has conspicuously celebrated on social media, a ceasefire agreement has been announced between Iran and the United States. Images released by the Iranian government, depicting U.S. President Donald Trump waving a white flag, signal a claimed victory. However, this Iranian exultation is met with escalating apprehension among Washington's allies and partners in the Gulf region. Despite a crushing military advantage held by the U.S. and Israel, political gains appear elusive, while the prospect of Gulf nations bearing the brunt of this confrontation looms large.

Fears of Renewed Conflict Emerge

Since the escalation of hostilities, Gulf states have endured a barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. Facing a emboldened Iran, these nations are now in a quandary, strategizing on how to ensure their survival in the shadow of a powerful neighbor that controls the vital Strait of Hormuz, a critical economic artery for the region and the world. Mohammed Baharoon, head of the B’huth Dubai Public Policy Research Center, remarks, "Iran is the only party satisfied with this outcome. They have reclaimed their role as the 'police' of the Gulf region." He adds with lament, "We are waking up to not just a reduction in risks, but a larger geopolitical powder keg."

While it is true that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has suffered significant losses, including the demise of many high-ranking leaders, and that a two-week ceasefire does not guarantee the complete cessation of hostilities, regional officials believe the likelihood of a new conflict, potentially of greater intensity, remains high. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled to take place this week in Islamabad, Pakistan, are set to address the future of the region.

Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University, cautions, "We need to see reality clearly. This is merely a temporary two-week ceasefire, not a final agreement by any means. It may be extended, but if the first round of negotiations collapses, the fires of war could reignite at any moment."

Swift Shifts in U.S. Stance

President Trump's change of heart has been swift and startling. On Tuesday morning, he was issuing dire warnings that "civilization itself will be destroyed tonight," only to accept Iran's "outrageous" 10-point demands hours later as a basis for further talks. This dramatic pivot has fueled skepticism in many Gulf countries regarding Washington's resolve in future negotiations to achieve its objectives and protect its friends.

Mahdi Ghuloom, a researcher at the ORF Middle East think tank in Bahrain, pointedly observes, "Trump has opted for compromise, and this compromise is tantamount to sidelining his allies in the Gulf region."

Conversely, Trump's earlier threats to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure and bomb the country back to the "Stone Age" until the Strait of Hormuz was reopened did not find broad endorsement among Gulf nations. On Wednesday, Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait City collectively breathed a sigh of relief, having temporarily averted the risk of devastating Iranian retaliatory strikes on their power plants and desalination facilities.

Despite this, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE reported sporadic Iranian missile and drone attacks on Wednesday, casting significant doubt on the durability of the ceasefire. Meanwhile, conflict persists in Lebanon, with Israel stating its intention to continue military operations against Hezbollah militants backed by Iran.

Gulf Interests Caught in the Crossfire

A substantial chasm persists in the positions of both the U.S. and Iran, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz. This waterway is not merely the lifeline of Gulf nations; at its peak, it served as a "super-artery" handling one-fifth of the world's oil and gas transportation.

Although Trump has proclaimed that Iran has agreed to "fully, immediately and safely reopen the Strait of Hormuz," Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, in a statement, insisted that passage through this international waterway would still require coordination and approval from the Iranian military. Since the conflict's outset, Iran has been imposing levies on passing vessels, and now seeks to permanently institutionalize this practice to fund its post-war reconstruction.

Ship-tracking data from Wednesday indicated that only a handful of vessels transited the corridors Iran established within its territorial waters last month, while the regular shipping lanes via Omani waters show no signs of returning to normal operation.

Nadim Koteich, a UAE-based analyst and political consultant, stated, "The real judgment day will come this Friday in Islamabad. If Iran ultimately retains control of the Strait of Hormuz in any form, then this is unequivocally an Iranian victory. Conversely, if the world succeeds in stripping Iran of its ability to 'weaponize' the Strait of Hormuz, much as its nuclear weaponization capability was curtailed, then this war will have been a strategic debacle for Iran, regardless of the cost."

Bader al-Saif, a history professor at Kuwait University, notes that making the Strait of Hormuz the "core focus" of this conflict—rather than Tehran's nuclear ambitions, ballistic missiles, and support for regional proxies—is itself a significant achievement for Iran.

He adds, "This conflict originated due to the nuclear issue, but the Iranians successfully shifted the ball to the Strait of Hormuz. So, the current situation is that everyone is no longer focused on the main conflict; a side issue has become the central point of attention. However, these core issues still exist and will need to be clearly resolved sooner rather than later."

He concludes with resignation, "The U.S. and Israel did not consider the interests of the Gulf states when the war began, and therefore we have become collateral damage. We fear becoming cannon fodder in war and continuing to be so in peacetime. This is something we absolutely cannot accept and must strive to avoid."

Iran's 10-point proposal demanded permanent control of the Strait of Hormuz, recognition of Iran's uranium enrichment rights, withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East, lifting of sanctions, and payment of reparations. However, the plan made no mention of limiting Iran's missile and drone arsenals, or constraining its cooperation with extremist groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis in Yemen.

Although Gulf leaders have not publicly criticized Trump's ceasefire decision, Saudi Arabia issued a statement emphasizing the necessity of ensuring unimpeded freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Anwar Gargash, diplomatic advisor to the UAE President, hailed the ceasefire as a victory for the Gulf monarchy. Over the past five weeks, the UAE bore the brunt of Iranian missile and drone attacks. He stated, "The UAE has achieved victory in a war we genuinely wished to avoid. In the face of treacherous aggression, we defended our sovereignty and dignity through epic defensive actions, preserving our development gains."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated he had spoken with Trump, revealing that Trump had assured him of America's commitment to ensuring Iran no longer poses a nuclear, missile, or terrorist threat to the U.S., Israel, Gulf nations, or the world.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst and commentator, finds Iran's current "victor's posture" somewhat inexplicable, given the immense economic and infrastructural damage Iran has sustained (not to mention its military assets). He stated, "Iran has been crippled and will require immense effort and a long time to lick its wounds and rebuild its nation."

However, Nikolay Kozhanov, an expert on Iran at the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, points out that Iran has indeed managed to partially offset its strategic setbacks of the past two years, during which Israel weakened Iran's regional proxies, and partnered with the U.S. to target Iran's nuclear and missile programs. He analyzes, "Now, the rest of the Middle East has been cornered and has no choice but to seek a deal with the Iranians."