Gaza Ceasefire Fragility: Escalating Tensions and Future Challenges

Gaza Ceasefire Fragility: Escalating Tensions and Future Challenges

The recent events near the Israeli-controlled border area in Gaza, resulting in the deaths of three Palestinians by Israeli forces, have raised questions about the future of the fragile ceasefire reached six weeks ago. These incidents highlight the significant difficulties in expanding this agreement, which had garnered temporary global praise.

Palestinian medical sources reported that the initial incident occurred when an Israeli drone fired a missile at a group of individuals east of Khan Younis, killing two and injuring one. In a separate event, a tank shell killed another person east of Gaza City. The Israeli military stated that its forces opened fire after spotting what it described as 'terrorists' crossing the 'yellow line' and approaching Israeli troops, posing an immediate threat.

Later on Monday, the Al-Quds Brigades, the armed wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, released a statement claiming they had discovered the body of a hostage within an Israeli-controlled area inside the Gaza Strip. The statement did not specify the timing of the body's handover. The body is one of three that remain in Gaza.

Ceasefire Agreement Complexities

The ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel was reached on October 9, aiming to end a destructive two-year war. However, the agreement left the most sensitive issues for later negotiations, freezing the conflict rather than fully resolving it. Under the agreement, Hamas released all 20 surviving hostages remaining in Gaza in exchange for the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and wartime detainees from Israeli jails. The agreement also stipulated the return of the remains of 28 hostages in exchange for the remains of 360 militants.

Since the agreement, both sides have accused each other of violating existing commitments and have shown resistance to the subsequent steps required to implement the 20-point peace plan proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Casualties Since Ceasefire

The Gaza Health Ministry reported on Monday that at least 342 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire since the ceasefire began on October 10. In contrast, Israel stated that three of its soldiers have been killed by militant fire during the same period.

Trump Plan and Ongoing Negotiations

Last week, the UN Security Council formally endorsed Trump's plan, which calls for the establishment of a temporary technocratic Palestinian government in Gaza overseen by an international 'peace committee' and supported by an international security force. Trump's plan also included a call for the reform of the Palestinian Authority based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who helped develop the plan and was described by Trump as a potential candidate for joining the peace committee, met with Hussein al-Sheikh, the second most senior figure in the Palestinian Authority, in the West Bank last Sunday. Al-Sheikh mentioned in a social media post that they discussed developments after the Security Council resolution and the requirements for Palestinian self-determination.

In a related context, a Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya, a leader in exile, held talks with Egyptian officials in Cairo to discuss the next stage of the ceasefire, according to Hazem Qassem, a Hamas spokesman in Gaza. Qassem acknowledged that the road to the second phase of the ceasefire is complex and indicated that the Islamic movement had informed Egypt, a mediator in the conflict, that Israeli violations are undermining the agreement.

Challenges of International Security Force

Agreeing on the formation and mandate of an international security force appears particularly challenging. Israel insists that the multinational force must disarm Hamas, a step the movement has resisted as long as a Palestinian state has not been established. For its part, Trump's plan envisions the establishment of a Palestinian state as a final phase, but Israel has ruled out this possibility. Qassem said that the force must play a role in keeping the Israeli army away from Palestinian civilians. A Palestinian official close to the Cairo talks, who requested anonymity, said: 'There is total uncertainty; the Americans have not yet presented detailed plans. It is not clear what kind of force it is, what is its mission, what is its role, and where it will be stationed. If any force is deployed without a political track and without an understanding with all Palestinian factions and forces in Gaza, it will only complicate matters.'