BitMine's Tom Lee Revises Bitcoin Forecast: $100K Still in Sight?

BitMine's Tom Lee Revises Bitcoin Forecast: Is $100K Still in Sight?

BitMine chair Tom Lee has seemingly tempered his earlier, more bullish Bitcoin forecast of $250,000 by year-end. He now suggests it's merely a 'maybe' that Bitcoin can reclaim its October all-time high of $125,100 before the year concludes.

"I think it's still very likely that Bitcoin is going to be above $100,000 before year-end, and maybe even to a new high," Lee stated during a CNBC interview on Wednesday, signaling a shift in his outlook.

This represents the first public moderation of Lee's $250,000 year-end Bitcoin (BTC) price target, initially projected earlier in 2024 and reiterated through early October. The initial prediction was amongst the most bullish in the crypto space.

Other crypto executives, including Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, previously cautioned that "crazy stuff" would need to occur for Bitcoin to achieve such heights.

Lee remains optimistic about Bitcoin's longer-term potential, suggesting that its strongest gains may still be ahead, even before the end of 2025. "I still think some of those best days are going to happen before year-end," he noted, with 35 days remaining in 2025.

Bitcoin's Volatility: Waiting for the Next Big Move

Lee highlighted Bitcoin's characteristic tendency to concentrate its gains within a small number of trading sessions annually, estimating that the asset typically "makes its move" in just 10 days each year.

This sentiment resonates throughout the industry. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley emphasized in a February 2024 X post that missing Bitcoin's best 10 days historically equates to forfeiting nearly all potential returns.

In 2024, Bitcoin's top 10 performing days delivered a cumulative return of 52%, while the remaining 355 days yielded an average return of -15%. This underscores the importance of holding through volatility.

Bitcoin has experienced a downtrend since October 10th, impacted by a $19 billion liquidation event across the cryptocurrency market, triggered by President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese goods.

It only recently recovered the $90,000 level on Wednesday, after trading below it for six consecutive days.

This comes despite November traditionally being Bitcoin's strongest month on average since 2013, according to CoinGlass data.

Meanwhile, economist Timothy Peterson suggested on Monday that Bitcoin's price bottom may already be in place, or will materialize this week.

Lee's Track Record: Hits and Misses

Should Bitcoin fail to reach Lee's revised projection, it wouldn't be the first instance of a Bitcoin forecast falling short of his expectations.

Back in January 2018, Lee predicted that Bitcoin could soar as high as $125,000 by 2022. The actual all-time high in 2018 peaked at $17,172.

However, Lee has also demonstrated accuracy in his price calls at times.

In July 2017, Lee projected a base-case scenario where Bitcoin could reach $20,000 by 2022, with a more optimistic outlook suggesting a potential price of $55,000 over the same period.

Bitcoin ultimately achieved $20,000 in December 2020 and $55,000 in March 2021, according to CoinMarketCap data.