Bitcoin Price Surge: A Deeper Dive into Macro Factors, ETF Flows, and Market Structure

Bitcoin's Ascent: A Closer Look at the Driving Forces

After a period of sluggish performance, Bitcoin experienced a robust rebound on November 26th, surpassing the $90,000 mark. This surge wasn't just a temporary blip; it was fueled by a confluence of positive factors, including macroeconomic expectations, a resurgence in capital flows, and improvements in market structure.

Macroeconomic Data Boosts Confidence

The latest U.S. job market data revealed a drop in initial jobless claims to 216,000, the lowest level since mid-April, significantly boosting investor confidence. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed a slight increase in wholesale prices due to rising energy and food costs, the core PPI gain (2.6%) was the smallest since July 2024. Analysts believe this report may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider another interest rate cut in December.

Following the report's release, JPMorgan economists swiftly revised their forecasts, believing the Fed will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their judgment from a week earlier that policymakers would delay rate cuts until January of next year. Their research team indicated that the support of several high-ranking Fed officials (especially New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams) for near-term rate cuts prompted them to reassess the situation. JPMorgan now expects the Fed to make two 25-basis-point rate cuts in December and next January, respectively.

Fueled by positive macroeconomic incentives, the price of Bitcoin rose nearly 4% during the day to above $90,000; Ether (ETH) rose 2% to $3,025. Major altcoins, including XRP, Solana (SOL), and BNB, also rose. The total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market reached US$3.08 trillion, a rebound of nearly 3% in 24 hours, and the trading volume reached US$139 billion. Bitcoin's share of market capitalization rose back to 56.5%, while Ether's share was 11.5%.

Capital Flows Reverse, ETFs Show Suction Effect Again

ETF financial flows have shown a significant improvement. Previously, the market faced serious pressure from outflows of capital, even breaking historical records. But data released on Wednesday showed that Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly US$129 million, Ether ETFs received more than US$78 million in inflows, Solana (SOL) ETFs increased by US$53 million, and XRP ETFs also attracted US$35 million. Driven by confidence in the macroeconomy, institutional funds are reallocating funds to the cryptocurrency market.

Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, more than US$273 million has been liquidated in the cryptocurrency market, with short positions dominating (US$197 million). Bitcoin topped the liquidation list with a volume of US$86 million, followed by Ether and HYPE.

Are Bottom Characteristics Gradually Appearing?

CryptoQuant analyst Abramchart pointed out that the market has just completed a deep "leverage cleanse", with the total amount of open positions dropping sharply from US$45 billion to US$28 billion, recording the largest drop in this cycle. This is not a signal of a bear market, but more like a major blood exchange in the market, clearing out over-inflated speculative positions and accumulating healthy momentum for subsequent rebounds.

In addition, after the severe volatility, BTC has remained stable above the average cost price of ETFs of US$79,000, indicating that large institutional funds have not experienced excessive selling. This provides important psychological and financial support for the market. In conjunction with several indicators that the market has focused on recently, we can see a deeper structural change:

Puell Multiple Approaches Cycle Bottom

On-chain analyst Ali observed that the Puell Multiple indicator is currently 0.67, although it has not yet fallen below the critical threshold of 0.50 at historical cycle bottoms, it is very close. Puell Multiple is a blockchain analysis indicator created by David Puell to assess the profitability of Bitcoin miners and their impact on the market. Calculation method: Puell Multiple = (Dollar value of newly issued Bitcoins daily) / (Moving average of the dollar value of newly issued Bitcoins daily over the past 365 days). Simply put, it measures the current selling pressure of miners (or the value of Bitcoins they currently earn each day) compared to the average over the past year. Historical data shows that since 2015, a drop in this indicator below 0.50 often heralds the bottom of the Bitcoin cycle. This means that miners' selling pressure may be easing, and the market is entering an important observation window, potentially signaling the arrival of a mid-term bottom.

Technical Transformation to Positive

Technical analyst Skew Δ pointed out that on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin currently shows a bullish-friendly technical structure, with multiple momentum and trend indicators (50EMA, RSI, Stoch RSI) pointing to the positive. US$88,000 is the lifeline for bulls, while US$90,000 to US$92,000 will be the critical resistance/contested area to confirm whether the market can start a stronger structural upward trend.

Traders should pay close attention to price performance near these key levels. Risks and Expectations Despite improved short-term sentiment, insufficient liquidity during Thanksgiving may amplify volatility. Wintermute trading strategist Jasper De Maere pointed out that the options market shows that traders generally expect Bitcoin to fluctuate in the US$85,000-90,000 range, betting that the market will maintain the status quo rather than a breakthrough trend. In the medium and long term, US$74,000 is a location that needs to be focused on. If Bitcoin's weekly closing price fails to hold this level, the market may face a larger correction. Currently, Bitcoin is still down nearly 30% from its historical high of US$126,000. Whether this rebound can truly transform into a sustainable rise ultimately depends on whether macroeconomic policies and financial flows can form sustained and powerful support.