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Saturday Nov 29 2025 00:10
2 min
Bitcoin (BTC) may have significant upside from here as its current price appears to be out of step with the forward macroeconomic outlook, according to a crypto researcher. “The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch said in an X post on Friday, referring to March 2020 when global pandemic fears sent Bitcoin’s price tumbling from around $8,000 to below $5,000.
Dragosch said that while Bitcoin’s current setup mirrors the extreme risk-reward conditions seen during the COVID pandemic, it is also “pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022,” pointing to a period marked by aggressive quantitative tightening from the US Federal Reserve and the collapse of crypto exchange FTX. He adds that Bitcoin is “pricing in” a recessionary environment.
“Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” Dragosch said, arguing that the asset has already priced in “a lot of the bad news.” He also adds that global growth is likely to pick up from here, driven by the impact of “preceding monetary stimulus,” which he believes could support growth acceleration well into 2026, similar to how it did after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Other crypto market participants are not convinced of a bear market. Crypto trader Alessio Rastani is also anticipating a similar rebound. Rastani recently told Cointelegraph that the recent drop may not signal the start of a prolonged bear cycle. Instead, he argued that the data points to a historically recurring setup that has preceded strong rallies roughly 75% of the time. Meanwhile, BitMine chair Tom Lee said on Wednesday that he is confident Bitcoin will reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year and may even reach new all-time highs.
Risk Warning: This article represents only the author’s views and is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, investment research, or a recommendation to trade, nor does it represent the stance of the Markets.com platform. When considering shares, indices, forex (foreign exchange), and commodities for trading and price predictions, remember that trading CFDs involves a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leveraged products can result in capital loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Before trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved and consider your investment objectives and level of experience. Trading cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets is restricted for all UK retail clients.
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