Article Summary
- Understanding the Bitcoin halving cycle and its historical impact on prices.
- Evaluating whether the traditional four-year cycle is still valid in the current market.
- Exploring factors that may disrupt the cycle, such as ETFs and institutional involvement.
- Analyzing on-chain indicators to determine if cyclical patterns persist.
- Discussing different perspectives on the future of Bitcoin cycles.
Introduction
Bitcoin went through a cycle of nearly 18 months from the halving in April 2024 to a new high of $120,000 in October 2025. If you only look at this path, it still seems to be operating according to the law of the cycle. Bottoming out at the halving, peaking within a year, and then entering a correction. But what really confuses the market is not whether there is a rise, but the fact that it has not risen as much as before. There is no successive surge like in 2017, and no national frenzy like in 2021. This round of market appears slow, dull, and range-bound, ETF progress is repetitive, altcoin rotation is weak, and even after hitting a new high, it fell below $90,000 in less than a month. Is this a bull market or the beginning of a bear market?
Is the Four-Year Cycle Broken?
Although Bitcoin has risen in price after the halving, this round of market is full of many wrong things from beginning to end. The Bitcoin halving was completed in April 2024. According to the historical rhythm, the market should usher in the main rising wave and emotional climax in the next 12 to 18 months. This was also almost the case. In October 2025, Bitcoin rose to a new high of $125,000. But the real problem is that this round of market does not have that final frenzy, and there is no national sentiment to take over. Shortly after the price hit a new high, it quickly fell by 25% and once fell below $90,000. This is not the "end of the bubble" that should appear in a typical cycle, but it seems like it was extinguished before the market warmed up. In addition, the mood is obviously low. In the past, whenever there was a bullish high, on-chain funding was active, altcoins soared, and retail investors rushed into the market. Even now, the market value dominance rate of Bitcoin remains at nearly 59%. This shows that most of the funds are still in mainstream currencies, altcoins cannot keep up, and the rotation lacks explosive power. Compared with the ten-fold and dozens of times gains in the past few cycles, Bitcoin has only risen 7 or 8 times from its low at the end of 2022 to its high; from the halving point, the increase is less than 2 times. The moderation of the market is also reflected in the funding structure. After the launch of ETFs, institutions began to buy continuously and became the main force in the market. Institutions are more rational and better at controlling volatility, which reduces the volatility of market sentiment and makes the pace of trading smoother. The price formation mechanism has changed, no longer simply "determined by supply and demand", but more driven by structural trading logic. In view of the above, all the anomalies in this round, including the retreat of sentiment, the weakening of returns, the disruption of the rhythm, and the dominance of institutions, make the market intuitively feel that the familiar four-year cycle set is no longer easy to use.
Which Parts of the Four-Year Cycle Theory Are Still Valid?
Although the surface phenomena are chaotic, in-depth analysis reveals that the logic of the four-year cycle theory has not been completely lost. Fundamental factors such as changes in supply and demand caused by halving are still playing a role, but are more moderate than before. The following section will analyze the parts where the cycle theory is still effective from three aspects: supply, on-chain indicators, and historical data.
Long-Term Supply Logic of Halving
Bitcoin is halved once every four years, which means that the new supply is continuously reduced. In the long run, this mechanism remains the key logic supporting price increases. In April 2024, Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, and the block reward was reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Although the total amount of Bitcoin is close to 94%, the marginal change brought about by a single halving is decreasing, but the market's expectations for scarcity have not disappeared. After the past few rounds of halving, the market's long-term bullish sentiment is still obvious, and many people choose to continue to hold rather than sell. This is also the case in this round. Although price fluctuations are violent, the impact of tightening supply still exists. As shown in the figure, Bitcoin's unrealized market value and realized market value in 2025 have increased significantly compared to the end of 2022, indicating that a large amount of funds has continued to flow into Bitcoin in recent years.
Periodicity of On-Chain Indicators
The behavior pattern of Bitcoin investors exhibits a cycle of "hoarding - profit taking", which is still reflected in on-chain data. Typical on-chain indicators include MVRV, SOPR, RHODL, etc.
MVRV is the ratio of market value to actual value. When the MVRV value rises, it indicates that Bitcoin is in an overvalued state. MVRV fell to 0.8 at the end of 2023 and rose to 2.8 when the market was good in 2024. In the correction at the beginning of 2025, MVRV fell back to below 2. The valuation was not overvalued or undervalued. The overall cycle of rise and fall is still there.
SOPR can be simply understood as selling price/purchase price. In terms of cycle laws, SOPR=1 is regarded as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Less than 1 indicates losing money when selling coins, and greater than 1 indicates that most are profitable. In this cycle, SOPR remained below 1 during the bear market of 2022. After 2023, it rose above 1 to enter the profit cycle. When the market was in a bullish stage in 2024-2025, this indicator was mostly greater than 1, which is in line with cycle laws.
RHODL is an indicator that measures the ratio of "realized value" between short-term currency holders (1 week) and medium- and long-term currency holders (1-2 years) to identify market top risks. Historically, when this indicator enters the extremely high area (red band), it usually corresponds to the peak of the bull market bubble (such as 2013 and 2017). In 2021-2022, RHODL rose again, and although it did not break through the historical extreme value, it indicated that the market structure was entering the later stage. This indicator is now also entering a cyclical high point, which to some extent also indicates that the price is at the top.
Overall, the cycle phenomena reflected by these on-chain indicators still correspond to historical laws. Although there are slight differences in specific values, the on-chain logic of the bottom and the top is still clear.
Decreasing Gains Seem Inevitable
From another perspective, the gradual decrease in gains at the peak of each cycle compared to the previous cycle is actually part of the normal evolution of cycle laws. The rise from 2013 to 2017 was about 20 times, the rise from 2017 to 2021 was reduced to about 3.5 times, and this rise from $69,000 to $125,000 was about 80%. Although the increase has obviously converged, the trend line is still continuing and has not completely deviated from the cycle track. This marginal decrease is also the result of the expansion of the market size and the increase in the weakening marginal push of funds, which does not represent a failure of the cycle logic. After all, the logic of the "four-year cycle" is still operating at times. Halving affects supply and demand, and market behavior still follows the rhythm of "fear - greed", but this time it is not as easy to understand the market as before.
The Truth About Cycle Chaos: Too Many Variables, Too Many Scattered Narratives
If the cycle is still there, why is this round of market so difficult to read? The reason is that the previous single halving rhythm is now disrupted by multiple forces. Specifically, there are several reasons why this cycle is different from previous cycles:
The Structural Impact of ETFs and Institutional Funding
Since the launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs in 2024, significant changes have taken place in the market structure. ETFs are a type of "slow money" that continues to accumulate positions when rising, and some people also add to their positions when falling. But it should be noted that institutional funds have withdrawn on a large scale in the past week. For example, the net daily outflows of US Bitcoin ETFs in the past two days reached 523 million US dollars, and the monthly total exceeded 2 billion US dollars. This shows that the current time is not the best time to "add to positions". The signal to add to positions must wait at least until the outflows stop and continuous net inflows begin, and institutional operations become mainly buying. ETFs not only bring a large amount of incremental funds, but also enhance price stability, and these average holding costs are around $89,000, forming effective support. This makes the rhythm of the Bitcoin market slower and more stable, but once the support or resistance level is broken, the volatility will be more violent. This is a rare feature in traditional cycles, and also reduces market volatility.
Fragmentation of Narratives and Acceleration of Hotspot Rotation
In the last bull market (2020-2021), DeFi and NFTs built a clear value line, but the current market is more like a collection of fragmented hotspots:
From the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, it was led by Bitcoin ETFs, and later entered the inscription craze;
In 2024, the Solana and Meme narratives rose;
Then Crypto AI and AI Agent became hotspots;
By 2025, InfoFi, Binance alpha, prediction markets, and x402 took turns on stage... The rotation of narratives is too fast, and the weak sustainability of hotspots makes it difficult for funds to switch at high frequency. Form allocation in the medium and long term. In addition, the previous cyclical connection of "Bitcoin leads the way, and altcoins rise" is no longer reliable. The current market is more like a series of small cycles pieced together, with some tracks heating up first and then cooling down, some assets peaking early, and Bitcoin fluctuating in between. This layered and interlocking structure makes the halving rhythm no longer play a decisive role alone.
Strengthening Reflexivity
In addition to ETFs, funding, and narratives, we must also face another phenomenon: the cycle itself is "affecting itself", that is, reflexivity. Because everyone knows the law of halving, they ambush and realize early, making the market overdrawn early. At the same time, ETF holders, institutional market makers, miners, etc. also adjust their strategies according to the cycle. Whenever the price approaches the theoretical peak, there may be a lot of profit taking that leads to a drop in advance, causing the cycle rhythm to be artificially advanced. In short, taking this round of market apart, we will find that the so-called cycle chaos is more than just more drivers. The market structure has changed, the participants have changed, and the way emotions are spread has changed. This also means that the old way of betting on bull and bear markets by looking at timelines may be outdated, and we need to understand a larger background.
Summary of Market Views
Faced with the uncertainty of the market, different KOLs have given different judgments. Through these opinions, we may be able to better understand the current market sentiment. BTCdayu believes that the four-year cycle no longer exists, Bitcoin has transformed from a halving driver to an institutional driver, and the weight of retail investors will gradually be diluted. Bitwise CEO HHorsley also tweeted to show that the traditional "four-year cycle" pattern is no longer applicable, and the cryptocurrency market structure has undergone profound changes. He believes that the market actually entered a bear market six months ago, and it is now at its end, and the fundamentals of crypto assets as a whole are stronger than ever. Wolfy_XBT believes that the halving rhythm has never failed, this bull market ended on October 6, and the current market is entering an early stage of the bear market. The laws of the four-year cycle are still valid, macro narratives and short-term emotions are just noise, and the cyclical theory born around the Bitcoin halving is the most reliable signal. 0xSunNFT said that cycles still exist, from the four-year halving cycle to local market trends. Every market trend has a period of silence, and the key is to understand the rhythm of the cycle. Regardless of whether it is ETH, XPL, or Meme, there are still opportunities for repeated fluctuations within the cycle. The key is not to be led away by short-term emotions. lanhubiji agrees with the view of this article, and believes that the cycle has not disappeared, but has been "deformed". The surplus of memes, the failure of altcoins, and the fragmentation of the market make cycle judgments require new methods. From these views, we can see that the debate between "the cycle is dead" and "the cycle is still there" is mostly a different interpretation of changes in the market structure. Perhaps the cycle has not disappeared, but it needs a more complex look to recognize its existence.
Conclusion
So what should we watch for in the future? For our ordinary retail investors, the most realistic way may not be to predict the cycle, but we can try to build our own sense of the market, such as learning to use data to help judge, avoid the risks brought by emotional fluctuations, and look for high-performance Cost-effective opportunities, rather than chasing every hotspot. At present, the cycle is still there, but it is more chaotic and dynamic, and we cannot think about the market by simply believing that "the time has come to rise". Many phenomena indicate that the rising stage of this round has most likely ended, so this is now a defensive stage. The most important thing is to keep the funds and not spend them easily. There may be a volatile rebound in the subsequent market, but it is more like an opportunity to escape rather than a new bull market. The real bottom usually does not reach its place once, but slowly forms after repeated vibrations. Staying cautious and restrained and leaving bullets is the only way to wait for the next real opportunity. Staying alive is more important than guessing correctly.
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