Bitfinex Analysis: Bitcoin ETF Outflows are Tactical Rebalancing, Not Institutional Flight

According to analysts at Bitfinex, the record outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) represent short-term, “tactical” rebalancing rather than an institutional exodus from Bitcoin (BTC).

The analysts pointed out that the root causes of the billions of dollars in ETF outflows and the broader market crash stem from:

  • Long-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders taking profit and selling their coins.
  • Highly-leveraged positions being flushed out of the markets.

They further added that the uncertainty of a December interest rate cut has also shifted investors to a risk-off outlook.

Tactical Rebalancing, Not a Wholesale Exit

Bitfinex asserted that this does not derail the longer-term move towards institutionalization. The spot ETF channel remains intact, and the outflow likely reflects tactical rebalancing rather than a wholesale exit from the asset class.

The structural thesis for Bitcoin remains “firm,” and Bitcoin is positioned for continued institutional adoption as a store-of-value asset with strong long-term fundamentals. The ongoing drawdown is a short-term price movement, they added.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Top $3.7 Billion

Bitcoin ETF outflows have topped $3.7 billion in November, as losses from October’s crypto market crash extended into the following month, sparking investor fears of the beginning of a bear market.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF led the outflows, with over $2.47 billion in redemptions so far in November.

The Bitcoin ETFs posted some of the worst daily outflows on record in November. Single-day outflows crossed $900 million on Thursday, according to Farside Investors.

Will ETF Investors Panic Sell?

Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at quantitative trading company Kronos Research, said that the average ETF investor is now underwater following BTC’s crash below $90,000. However, this does not mean that ETF investors will panic sell.

Bitcoin ETF investors tend to be long-term holders and ignore short-term market noise and price movements, Liu said.

According to senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, long-term Bitcoin whales and OGs who hold the asset directly rather than through an investment vehicle are responsible for most of the selling.


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