UAE Petrol Price Forecast for November 2026: Will Brent Above $113 Push Rates Higher Again?

Key Takeaways

• UAE petrol and diesel prices for November 2026 have not yet been officially announced.
• Brent crude settled at $113.17 per barrel on October 22 before trading above $114, increasing the risk of another rise in local pump prices.
• UAE fuel prices already jumped sharply in October, with Super 98 reaching AED 4.40 and Special 95 rising to AED 4.28 per litre.
• Based on October’s global energy trend, Super 98 could rise toward AED 4.50–AED 4.65 per litre in November, although the final rate will depend on monthly petroleum-product averages.
• The UAE Fuel Price Committee is expected to announce the official November rates near the end of October, with the new prices taking effect on November 1.

The UAE petrol price forecast for November 2026 is shifting higher after Brent crude climbed above $113 per barrel, intensifying concerns that motorists could face another increase at the pump.

Fuel prices have already risen for three consecutive months. October produced the largest recent adjustment, pushing Super 98 to AED 4.40 per litre, Special 95 to AED 4.28 and diesel to AED 4.80.

November’s official prices have not yet been released. However, the sustained increase in crude oil, refined fuel and shipping costs suggests that another rise is more likely than a meaningful reduction unless energy markets retreat sharply before the end of October.

Current UAE Petrol and Diesel Prices

The UAE Gasoline and Diesel Prices Follow-up Committee approved the following rates for October 2026:

The October increase amounted to approximately 15.8% for Super 98, 16% for Special 95 and 16.6% for E-Plus 91. Diesel rose by 11.6%.

The official committee said the prices were established through the UAE’s monthly mechanism, which reflects movements in global energy markets while considering domestic supply requirements.

UAE Petrol Price Forecast for November 2026

Based on Brent crude trading between approximately $103 and $114 during October, elevated regional refined-product costs and continued pressure on shipping, UAE fuel prices have an upward bias for November.

The following estimates are indicative forecasts rather than official prices:

The base-case forecast assumes Brent remains broadly between $105 and $115 through the final week of October. A late-month decline below $100 could produce a smaller adjustment or keep some rates close to October’s levels.

If Brent moves above $120 and refined-product prices rise at the same time, increases could exceed these ranges, particularly for diesel.

Why Brent Above $113 Matters for UAE Drivers

Brent crude settled 4% higher at $113.17 per barrel on October 22, its highest close since May. The benchmark subsequently traded above $114, taking its October gain to approximately 10%.

The rally followed attacks on Saudi infrastructure, threats to tankers in and near the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about renewed military action involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

Crude exports from the Gulf have largely recovered toward pre-conflict levels. Saudi Arabia has increased shipments, while regional producers have redirected some volumes through pipelines and alternative maritime routes.

However, transportation has not fully normalized. Higher insurance premiums, record tanker costs and longer shipping routes are keeping the delivered cost of energy elevated even when physical crude remains available.

US commercial crude inventories have also declined, reducing one of the buffers available to the global market. Together, these factors have allowed oil prices to remain high despite weaker global demand forecasts.

How UAE Petrol Prices Are Calculated

UAE fuel prices were deregulated in August 2015 and are reviewed every month by a committee chaired by the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure.

The pricing mechanism considers average international petroleum-product prices as well as operating and distribution costs. This means the committee does not simply convert the final Brent price of the month into an equivalent pump price.

A short-lived spike on one trading day may have limited influence. A sustained increase throughout the month is much more important because it raises the average cost used in the pricing process.

Refining margins also matter. Petrol and diesel can become more expensive even without an equivalent rise in crude if refinery disruptions, limited inventories or strong regional demand tighten the supply of finished fuel.

Shipping and insurance costs are particularly relevant during the current Middle East conflict. Even if crude continues to flow through Gulf export routes, the cost of transporting and insuring those cargoes can increase the price of refined products.

Petrol Prices Have Increased for Three Consecutive Months

The UAE’s current fuel rally began after prices reached a temporary low in July.

August brought relatively limited adjustments, but prices increased again in September before surging in October. Official September rates were Super 98 at AED 3.80, Special 95 at AED 3.69, E-Plus 91 at AED 3.61 and diesel at AED 4.30.

Another increase in November would extend the sequence to four months and take petrol further above the levels recorded during the summer.

What Another Increase Would Cost UAE Motorists

At October’s prices, filling a 60-litre tank costs:

If prices rise by AED 0.15 per litre in November, a 60-litre refill would cost an additional AED 9.

A motorist filling a 60-litre tank four times per month would therefore pay approximately AED 36 more. For commercial fleets, taxis, delivery companies and logistics businesses, even a modest per-litre increase can produce a much larger monthly expense.

Higher diesel prices may also affect the wider economy because diesel is extensively used in freight, construction and commercial transportation. Those businesses may eventually pass part of the increase to customers through higher delivery or service charges.

Three Possible Scenarios for November Fuel Prices

Brent Remains Above $110

This is the most clearly bullish scenario for UAE pump prices. A sustained Brent price above $110, combined with high refining and freight costs, would support increases near or above the forecast ranges.

Super 98 could approach AED 4.60–AED 4.65, while diesel could test AED 5 per litre or higher.

Oil Falls Back Below $100

A ceasefire, improved tanker security or evidence of weaker demand could reduce the geopolitical premium in crude prices.

If Brent falls below $100 and remains there through the end of October, November increases could be limited. Some fuel categories could remain near their current levels, although the earlier rise in the monthly average may prevent an immediate large reduction.

Supply Disruption Pushes Brent Above $120

Fresh attacks on oil infrastructure or a serious disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could drive Brent above $120.

Under that scenario, the UAE committee could approve a larger increase. Diesel may face the greatest pressure because its price also reflects tight global supplies of refined middle-distillate fuels.

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When Will UAE November Petrol Prices Be Announced?

The UAE Fuel Price Committee typically publishes the following month’s rates during the final days of the current month. The November 2026 prices are therefore expected near the end of October and will take effect at service stations nationwide on November 1.

Until the official announcement, any numerical estimate remains a forecast.

Brent’s monthly average will be more important than whether oil trades at $113 or $114 on a single day. Nevertheless, the latest rally has substantially reduced the probability of a meaningful November price cut.

Unless oil retreats sharply, UAE motorists should prepare for petrol and diesel prices to remain elevated and potentially increase again in November.