You are attempting to access a website operated by an entity not regulated in the EU. Products and services on this website do not comply with EU laws or ESMA investor-protection standards.
As an EU resident, you cannot proceed to the offshore website.
Please continue on the EU-regulated website to ensure full regulatory protection.
목요일 5월 30 2024 13:02
5 분
South Africa's rand slipped while the country's stocks and bonds came under pressure on Thursday after projections indicated the governing African National Congress (ANC) was likely to lose its parliamentary majority in this week's election.
As of 12:40 GMT, the South African rand traded at 18.5838 against the dollar, about 0.7% weaker than its previous close. The currency has declined around 2% since the start of the year.
On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Top-40 index dropped nearly 2%, compared to a 1.3% decline across broader emerging markets. Both local and international bonds also faced pressure.
The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research projected that the ANC would receive 42% of the national vote, while broadcaster eNCA estimated around 45%.
오늘 거래를 개설한 경우 발생할 수 있는 손익(총 비용 및 수수료)을 계산하세요.
시장
상품
계좌 유형
포지션
수량
금액은 다음보다 크거나 같아야 합니다. 기준 금액:
금액은 다음보다 작아야 합니다. 기준 금액:
금액은 최소 랏 증가분의 배수여야 합니다.
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
AUD
CHF
ZAR
MXN
JPY
가격
수수료
스프레드
레버리지
환전 수수료
유지증거금
오버나이트 스왑
과거의 성과가 미래의 결과를 보장하는 것은 아닙니다.
계좌 통화와 일치하지 않는 통화로 표시된 상품의 포지션을 청산할 경우, 환전 수수료가 부과됩니다.
As per a Reuters report last updated on 12:09 GMT, South Africa’s election commission has so far released results from just over 16% of polling stations, showing the ANC at 42.5%, the largest opposition party Democratic Alliance at 25.7%, and the radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters at 8.5%.
If the final results mirror the early figures, the ANC would need to form a coalition with one or more other parties to govern, potentially leading to unprecedented political volatility in the coming weeks or months.
Early results indicated the ANC was likely to secure a vote share closer to the lower end of projections, "increasing the chances that it will need to rely on one of the larger opposition parties to form the next government”, as per a research note from Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. Reuters cited Tuvey as adding that the scenario could introduce "potentially more radical policy outcomes”.
South Africa's government bonds also felt the pressure. Yields on the domestic 10-year benchmark spiked to as high as 10.743% — levels last seen in late April — before pulling back to 10.655%, according to LSEG data.
Among international dollar bonds, longer-dated maturities fell nearly 1 cent in early trading to hit four-week lows before retracing some losses. By 0945 GMT, the 2052 bond traded at 86.852 cents, Tradeweb data showed.
The cost of insuring exposure to the country's debt rose, with five-year credit default swaps climbing by 3 basis points from Wednesday's close to 230 bps, the highest level in a month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The Dutch bank ING recently published a preview of the South African election, writing that the “ANC could lose its majority [...] if polls are to be believed”.
As for the vote’s effect on the South African rand, EM Sovereign Strategist James Wilson and Global Head of Markets Chris Turner wrote that the effect of the “external environment”, such as U.S. inflation data and trade figures with China, was no less important than the result of the election:
“The rand has been one of the top emerging market currency performers over the last six weeks. That may partially be due to the tick-up in ANC popularity in the polls – reducing the risk of a market-unfriendly coalition. A large part of that rand out-performance, however, will be down to the external environment. Here low FX volatility has favoured the relative high-yielders, like the rand, which offers a 3% real interest rate. Additionally, the rand has been enjoying some strong terms of trade support given the surge in the prices of South Africa's top exports such as gold and platinum.
We suspect a further decline in USD/ZAR will require some more good news from the external environment such as some softer US inflation data. It is not clear to us that USD/ZAR needs to trade substantially below 18.00 should the ANC do well enough in the election to minimise the risk of uncertain coalitions. At the same time, the rand is one of the currencies most highly correlated to the China growth story and to the renminbi. USD/CNY trading above 7.25 over the next week or so could well undermine any further gains in the rand.
In short, we doubt the local story will justify USD/ZAR sustaining a move under 18.00 – unless that is softer US data provides a lift to the whole emerging currency complex”.
위험 고지: 본 기사는 저자의 견해만을 반영하며, 정보 제공 목적으로만 작성되었습니다. 이는 투자 조언, 투자 리서치 또는 거래 권유를 구성하지 않으며, Markets.com 플랫폼의 입장을 대변하지도 않습니다. 주식, 지수, 외환(FX), 원자재의 거래 및 가격 예측을 고려할 때, CFD 거래에는 상당한 수준의 위험이 수반되며 모든 투자자에게 적합하지 않을 수 있음을 유의하시기 바랍니다. 레버리지 상품은 원금 손실을 초래할 수 있습니다. 과거의 성과는 미래의 결과를 보장하지 않습니다. 거래 전에 관련된 위험을 완전히 이해하고, 투자 목표와 경험 수준을 고려하십시오. 암호화폐 CFD 및 스프레드 베팅 거래는 모든 영국 소매 고객에게 제한됩니다.
최신
모두 보기토요일, 25 10월 2025
3 분
금요일, 24 10월 2025
4 분
금요일, 24 10월 2025
3 분
KO
